687
FXUS63 KABR 241725 AAC
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1225 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE COMING DAYS, WITH HIGHS THIS WEEKEND IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (25-50%) WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY
OVER NORTH CENTRAL SD.
- COOLER AIR (HIGHS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80) AND DRIER CONDITIONS
WILL ARRIVE BY WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1015 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO INCREASE SKY COVER THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HREF, ALONG WITH SATELLITE DATA
INDICATE SCT TO BKN LOW CLOUD DECK OVER NORTH CENTRAL SD. THE LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD EXPAND AND PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
MAY NEED TO ADD LOW POPS INTO THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
WATER VAPOR DOES SHOW A WEAK WAVE CROSSING THE REGION AND SOME
CAMS SUPPORT THIS POTENTIAL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
AFTER MANY DAYS IN A ROW WITH OVERNIGHT CONVECTION, A MUCH NEEDED
BREAK COMES THIS MORNING AS A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA. LIGHT WIND WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF PATCHY TO DENSE FOG, WITH
SOME OBSERVATIONS REPORTING DOWN BELOW A MILE IN VISIBILITY. WHILE
TOUGH TO SAY FOR SURE WITH HIGH CLOUDS OBSCURING SATELLITE IMAGERY
TO THE SURFACE, OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE FOG IS NOT VERY
WIDESPREAD, AND THIS IS THE EXPECTATION FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING.
REGARDLESS, A CLOSE WATCH WILL BE KEPT ON THE FOG TRENDS THIS
MORNING.
SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED STORM
RETURN TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. CAMS REMAIN INCONSISTENT
ON THE LOCATION, WITH MANY SIMPLY KEEPING THE AREA CLEAR ENTIRELY.
THERE IS HOWEVER A HALF-DECENT ENVIRONMENT OVER PARTS OF WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA, WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG, 0-6KM
SHEAR BETWEEN 30-40 KNOTS, AND SOME SUPPORT FROM A WEAK LOW-LEVEL
JET. CONTENDING AGAINST STORM FORMATION WILL BE WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES, AS 5-6 C/KM WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT UPDRAFT POTENTIAL IN
THAT REGION. LAPSE RATES WILL INCREASE IN THAT AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT, BUT WITH SHEAR DECREASING IT WILL LIKELY BE TO LATE TO GET
ANY SIGNIFICANT STORMS. ALL THIS TO SAY THAT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
STORMS MAY INITIATE TO THE WEST AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
THIS EVENING, BUT CHANCES DO NOT LOOK GREAT AT THIS POINT.
WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL ALSO BE SOMEWHAT OF A CONCERN IN THE UPCOMING
COUPLE OF DAYS. FIRSTLY FROM CANADA TODAY, MAINLY OVER FAR
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. SOME SMOKE
WILL MANAGE TO MIX TO THE SURFACE, BUT MODELS HAVE NEAR-SURFACE
CONCENTRATIONS REMAINING FAIRLY LOW. TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL SEE
SMOKE FROM CANADA MOVE OFF, BUT SMOKE FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONUS MOVE
IN. THIS SMOKE IS FORECASTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY ALOFT, AT LEAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD AND OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THIS
WEEKEND AND FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. AS THAT OCCURS, WE'LL
CONTINUE TO SEE SHORTWAVES EJECT OUT OF THE PACNW TROUGH AND SWING
ACROSS THE REGION. THAT WILL BRING OPPORTUNITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS,
BUT WITH THE WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT THERE IS THE EXPECTATION
THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE CAPPED (DUE TO WARM NOSE AROUND 800MB)
FOR CONVECTION OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. THUS, LIKE MUCH OF
THIS PAST WEEK, WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO
MOVE INTO OUR AREA, PRIMARILY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS
STARTS INITIALLY FRIDAY WITH CONVECTION LIKELY DEVELOPING IN THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS (ESPECIALLY WESTERN ND) AND OCCURRING AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. THEN AS THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS ON
SUNDAY, THAT DEVELOPMENT MAY FOCUS MORE INTO OR CLOSER TO OUR CWA
AND A COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. OF COURSE,
PINNING DOWN THESE INITIATION LOCATIONS ARE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE AT
THIS RANGE, SO CONTINUE TO FOLLOW ENSEMBLE/NBM POPS THROUGH MONDAY.
THAT POINTS TOWARDS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA HAVING THE HIGHEST
CHANCES (25-50% AT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT). SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
THERE DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF 2-4K J/KG IN PLACE
WITH THE HOT (80S TO MID 90S) AND HUMID (DEWPOINTS IN UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S) CONDITIONS IN PLACE, ALONG WITH STEEP (7-8.5C/KM) MID
LEVEL LRS. SHEAR LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE LIMITED ON FRIDAY NIGHT (20-
25KTS), BUT DOES INCREASE INTO THE 30-35KT RANGE FOR SAT/SUN. ML
SEVERE PROBS (CSU/NSSL) ALSO POINT TO AN INCREASED SEVERE POTENTIAL
DURING THE PERIOD, WITH THE GREATEST PROBS UP INTO ND. FINALLY, WITH
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED HEAT/HUMIDITY, DO HAVE HEAT INDICES RISING
INTO THE 90S AND SOME 100S APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHEAST. AT THIS
TIME, ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES ONLY POINT TO A 25-50% CHANCE OF A HEAT
ADVISORY OVER THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA ON SAT/SUN.
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL/NORTHERN CANADA ON MONDAY
WILL SUPPRESS/SHIFT THE RIDGE AXIS WESTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE
OF THE ROCKIES AND PUT THE AREA UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER AIR TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA UNDER A CANADIAN
HIGH AND BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE
MIDDLE/END OF NEXT WEEK (70S TO AROUND 80).
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
WHILE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, THERE IS A LOW, MVFR
CLOUD DECK OF FEW TO SCT IMPACTING SOME TERMINALS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL SEE INCREASING WINDS FRIDAY
MORNING WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 20 KNOTS. WHILE CURRENTLY NOT IN THE
TAFS, THERE IS ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, MAINLY AT KPIR AND KMBG.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...SD
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