456
FXUS63 KABR 242332
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
632 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE COMING DAYS, WITH HIGHS THIS WEEKEND IN THE UPPER 80S AND
90S. HEAT INDICES MAY EXCEED 100 DEGREES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (20-40%) WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE,
PRIMARILY OVER NORTH CENTRAL SD.
- COOLER AIR (HIGHS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80) AND DRIER CONDITIONS
WILL ARRIVE BY WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. STORMS IN WESTERN
MINNESOTA STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AND REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
THRESHOLDS. SEE BELOW FOR UPDATE TO THE AVIATION FORECAST
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
A WEAK WAVE ALOFT IS PRODUCING INCREASING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW CAMS SUPPORT VERY
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 12 THIS
AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TONIGHT IS A LITTLE MORE
UNCLEAR. SOME HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR
THE BLACK HILLS LATER THIS EVENING, WITH STORMS PROGRESSING EAST-
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THE NBM PROBABILITY OF SEEING 0.05
INCHES OF QPF 10 PERCENT OR LESS FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 6Z. THE CHANCES DO INCREASE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL SD EARLY FRIDAY MORNING TO AROUND 20 PERCENT. THERE SHOULD
BE A PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS FROM ABOUT 15Z THROUGH 22Z FRIDAY.
AFTER 22Z, SOME CAMS, AS WELL AS THE NBM BRINGS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA. WHILE
CONVECTION APPEARS MORE ROBUST IN ND FRIDAY NIGHT, THERE IS STILL
A 20 TO 40 POP ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 212. SPC'S DAY 2 OUTLOOK
HIGHLIGHTS A MARGINAL RISK, 1 OUT OF 5, FOR SEVERE STORMS ON
FRIDAY, WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.
SATURDAY WILL FEATURE DRY, BUT WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE MID 80S, TO THE MID 90S. HEAT INDICES APPROACH
100 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THE PATTERN DOES
RESET SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM PROGRESSING ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTH DAKOTA. SEVERE STORMS
MAY BE POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY BEFORE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS PROGRESSES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THIS ROUND OF STORMS MAY ALSO MAINLY IMPACT NORTH DAKOTA
AND PERHAPS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF SOUTH DAKOTA. ONE MORE
ROUND OF STORMS SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
BEFORE THE WEATHER PATTERN DRIES OUT SOME MID WEEK. THE NBM HAS
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT SHOWING HIGH TEMPERATURE DROPPING INTO THE
70S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, OR 5 TO 10 DEGREE BELOW AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCAL FOG
BUT THAT THIS TIME ITS TOO LOW A PROBABILITY FOR INCLUSION IN
TAFS. WINDS SHALL SHIFT TO BECOME MORE PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...07
DISCUSSION...SD
AVIATION...07
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