333
FXUS63 KABR 260910
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
410 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH MID MORNING.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES WILL BE COMMON THIS, HIGHEST
WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.
- LOFTED SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES OVER THE WESTERN STATES CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.
- THERE IS A 30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SD TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK, OR LEVEL 2
OUT OF 5, OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS TO
AROUND 60 MPH AND HAIL AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER WEST OF A LINE FROM
PIERRE TO GETTYSBURG, ABERDEEN, AND BRITTON.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK, OR LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5, OF SEVERE STORMS
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN SD, AND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. A FEW OF THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER AND
WINDS TO AROUND 60 MPH.
- COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY, WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2025
THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW LOWER
CLOUDS WITH VISIBILITY OF 4SM OR LESS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NE WITH
A STREAMER PUSHING NORTH OVER MAINLY HAMLIN, CODINGTON, AND WESTERN
GRANT COUNTIES AT 0845Z. SIMILAR TO THE LAST 2 MORNINGS, FOG AND
LOWER CEILINGS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 13-14Z BEFORE MIXING
OUT.
SMOKE FROM THE WESTERN U.S., AND PRIMARILY THE DRAGON BRAVO
WILDFIRE, WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA. THE HRRR
WAS HEAVILY RELIED ON FOR ENHANCEMENTS TO OUR SKY COVER. MODEL
GUIDANCES FROM SEVERAL SOURCES SHOWS THAT MOST OF THIS SMOKE WILL
REMAIN LOFTED/ABOVE THE SURFACE THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT.
THE HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WE
CURRENTLY HAVE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
(PRAIRIE COTEAU) OF NORTHEASTERN SD TODAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST ON
THE TEMPERATURES AND THAT WE WILL REACH 100-105 DEGREE HEAT INDEX
VALUES WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER, WHILE LESS CONFIDENCE EAST.
DEWPOINTS ARE TRICKY. HAVE BUMPED UP THE NBM DEWPOINT FORECAST FOR
TODAY SLIGHTLY, AS THEY HAVE TRENDED TO BE SLIGHTLY TOO LOW COMPARED
TO THE ONGOING OBSERVATIONS. IF TEMPERATURES AND/OR DEWPOINTS ARE
AGAIN MUCH HIGHER THAN OUR CURRENT FORECAST FOR SUNDAY, ADDITIONAL
HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED. AT THIS POINT, WENT WITH OUR HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE COUNTIES, WITH ONLY 4 OF OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL COUNTIES MAY BE NEEDED.
OTHERWISE SHOWER/STORM WISE WE REMAIN STUCK IN A REOCCURRING WEATHER
PATTERN. WE'RE DEALING WITH POP UP SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL SD
EARLY THIS MORNING. A COUPLE RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER NORTHERN SD. OTHERWISE, WE'RE WAITING FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN SD TO NEAR OUR WEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THERE IS A 30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SD TONIGHT, WITH AN SPC SLIGHT RISK WEST OF A
LINE FROM PIERRE TO GETTYSBURG, ABERDEEN, AND BRITTON. WHILE HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE, WIND LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE
STORMS.
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK, OR LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5, OF SEVERE STORMS LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN SD, AND ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN IS A CONCERN MONDAY
NIGHT, WITH OUR CURRENT FORECAST OF 0.25 TO NEARLY 1" OF RAIN EAST
OF A LINE FROM EUREKA TO MILLER. THE PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH TO
OUR WEST WILL SHIFT OVER CENTRAL SD AS A LOW SUNDAY, AND SINK TO OUR
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. THIS WILL BE AS A CANADIAN SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MN THURSDAY AND EXITS OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
STORMS ARE PRETTY MUCH UP CLOSER TO THE I94 CORRIDOR SO TAFS
SHOULD BE UN-IMPACTED, THOUGH AN OUTFLOW IS HEADED THROUGH KMBG
MEANING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRAY FROM THE PREDOMINANT 180'ISH
DEGREES ALL THE OTHER TERMINALS ARE EXPERIENCING. LLWS IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT FOR KABR AND KPIR AS WELL. LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WE
WILL HAVE TO MORE THOROUGHLY EVALUATE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND
TIMING.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 8 PM CDT /7 PM
MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ003>010-015>018-033>037-045-048-
051.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR SDZ018-037-048-
051.
MN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ039-046.
DISCUSSION...06
AVIATION...07
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