560  
FXUS63 KABR 261727 AAB  
AFDABR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD  
1227 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. HEAT  
INDEX VALUES TODAY OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES WILL BE COMMON  
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.  
 
- LOFTED SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES OVER THE WESTERN STATES CAN BE  
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.  
 
- THERE IS A 30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER  
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SD TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK, OR  
LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5, OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG  
WINDS TO AROUND 60 MPH AND HAIL AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER WEST  
OF A LINE FROM PIERRE TO GETTYSBURG, ABERDEEN, AND BRITTON.  
 
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK, OR LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5, OF SEVERE STORMS  
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN SD, AND  
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. A FEW OF THE  
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO 1 INCH IN  
DIAMETER AND WINDS TO AROUND 60 MPH.  
 
- COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY, WITH  
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S.  
 

 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2025  
 
SEE BELOW FOR AN AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS.  
 
UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2025  
 
NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE TODAY PERIOD FORECAST. PIERRE GOT TO 96F  
YESTERDAY. THEY SHOULD BE CRACKING THE CENTURY MARK THIS  
AFTERNOON; THEM AND MUCH OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. LIGHT MORNING  
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 212 AND EAST OF U.S.  
HIGHWAY 83 CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WORK THEIR WAY EAST TOWARD/INTO  
MINNESOTA.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2025  
 
THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW LOWER  
CLOUDS WITH VISIBILITY OF 4SM OR LESS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NE WITH  
A STREAMER PUSHING NORTH OVER MAINLY HAMLIN, CODINGTON, AND WESTERN  
GRANT COUNTIES AT 0845Z. SIMILAR TO THE LAST 2 MORNINGS, FOG AND  
LOWER CEILINGS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 13-14Z BEFORE MIXING  
OUT.  
 
SMOKE FROM THE WESTERN U.S., AND PRIMARILY THE DRAGON BRAVO  
WILDFIRE, WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA. THE HRRR  
WAS HEAVILY RELIED ON FOR ENHANCEMENTS TO OUR SKY COVER. MODEL  
GUIDANCES FROM SEVERAL SOURCES SHOWS THAT MOST OF THIS SMOKE WILL  
REMAIN LOFTED/ABOVE THE SURFACE THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT.  
 
THE HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE  
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WE  
CURRENTLY HAVE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS  
(PRAIRIE COTEAU) OF NORTHEASTERN SD TODAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST ON  
THE TEMPERATURES AND THAT WE WILL REACH 100-105 DEGREE HEAT INDEX  
VALUES WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER, WHILE LESS CONFIDENCE EAST.  
DEWPOINTS ARE TRICKY. HAVE BUMPED UP THE NBM DEWPOINT FORECAST FOR  
TODAY SLIGHTLY, AS THEY HAVE TRENDED TO BE SLIGHTLY TOO LOW COMPARED  
TO THE ONGOING OBSERVATIONS. IF TEMPERATURES AND/OR DEWPOINTS ARE  
AGAIN MUCH HIGHER THAN OUR CURRENT FORECAST FOR SUNDAY, ADDITIONAL  
HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED. AT THIS POINT, WENT WITH OUR HIGHEST  
CONFIDENCE COUNTIES, WITH ONLY 4 OF OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN A HEAT  
ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL COUNTIES MAY BE NEEDED.  
 
OTHERWISE SHOWER/STORM WISE WE REMAIN STUCK IN A REOCCURRING WEATHER  
PATTERN. WE'RE DEALING WITH POP UP SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL SD  
EARLY THIS MORNING. A COUPLE RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE  
OVER NORTHERN SD. OTHERWISE, WE'RE WAITING FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF  
STORMS DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN SD TO NEAR OUR WEST OF THE MISSOURI  
RIVER COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.  
THERE IS A 30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER  
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SD TONIGHT, WITH AN SPC SLIGHT RISK WEST OF A  
LINE FROM PIERRE TO GETTYSBURG, ABERDEEN, AND BRITTON. WHILE HAIL  
WILL BE POSSIBLE, WIND LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE  
STORMS.  
 
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK, OR LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5, OF SEVERE STORMS LATE  
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN SD, AND ACROSS THE  
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN IS A CONCERN MONDAY  
NIGHT, WITH OUR CURRENT FORECAST OF 0.25 TO NEARLY 1" OF RAIN EAST  
OF A LINE FROM EUREKA TO MILLER. THE PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH TO  
OUR WEST WILL SHIFT OVER CENTRAL SD AS A LOW SUNDAY, AND SINK TO OUR  
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  
 
COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS  
MAINLY IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. THIS WILL BE AS A CANADIAN SURFACE  
HIGH SHIFTS OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MN THURSDAY AND EXITS OVER  
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2025  
 
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.  
THUNDERSTORMS COULD ROLL INTO/NEAR THE KPIR/KMBG TERMINALS AFTER  
00Z THIS EVENING. SOME OF THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD BECOME  
STRONG TO SEVERE; MAINLY EXPECTING VERY STRONG WINDS TO ACCOMPANY  
SEVERE STORMS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT KMBG  
AS WELL.  
 

 
   
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SD...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR  
SDZ003>010-015>018-033>037-045-048-051.  
 
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR SDZ018-037-048-  
051.  
 
MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ039-046.  
 

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...10  
DISCUSSION...06  
AVIATION...10  
 
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