117
FXUS63 KABR 271803 AAC
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
103 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH 8 PM CDT.
- LOFTED SMOKE THAT HAS DRIFTED OVER THIS AREA, FROM WILDFIRES
OVER THE WESTERN STATES, SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY.
- THERE IS A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER
EASTERN SD LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS AN
ENHANCED RISK, OR LEVEL 3 OUT OF 5, OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS OF 70 MPH AND HAIL UP TO AROUND 2 INCHES
IN DIAMETER AND TORNADOES. THE BIGGEST THREAT AREA IS LOCATED
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM TINTAH, MN TO ANDOVER, SD TO NEAR
REDFIELD, SD.
- THERE IS A 50-70% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK, LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5, FOR SEVERE
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS OF 70 MPH AND HAIL UP
TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN SD INTO WEST CENTRAL MN.
- COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY, WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2025
SEE BELOW FOR AN AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
SPC HAS UPGRADED A PORTION OF THE EASTERN CWA INTO AN ENHANCED
RISK (LEVEL 3 OUT OF 5) THIS AFTERNOON FOR HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER, THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS WELL IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH, AND
TORNADOES. ALL THE INGREDIENTS THAT SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING TORNADOES APPEAR TO BE COMING TOGETHER ALONG THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE REGION THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THE BOUNDARY
LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM NEAR FARGO BACK TO NEAR BISMARCK DOWN TO NEAR
PHILIP. OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO EXTEND DOWN
TO NEAR MILLER AND UP TO OAKES, SO THIS OFB WILL HAVE TO BE KEPT
TRACK OF FOR LATER ON DURING PEAK HEATING/INSTABILITY AS AN
ADDITIONAL SOURCE OF FORCING FOR CI.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 838 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2025
NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE TODAY PERIOD FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2025
AS OF 2AM CDT WE STILL HAVE SOME SHOWERS AND SUBSEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN SD. THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTH AND OUT OF OUR AREA IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ARE IN THE LOW 70S
WITH WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH.
WE CONTINUE OUR ACTIVE PATTERN TODAY WITH ABOUT A 30-40% CHANCE OF
STORMS THIS EVENING. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED AN AREA MAINLY EAST OF THE
JAMES RIVER IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MLCAPE FOR STORMS TO USE WITH
VALUES RANGING FROM 3000 TO 4000 J/KG. LAPSE RATES ARE BETWEEN 7.5
AND 8 C/KM DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ANY STORMS THAT
FORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND WIND
GUSTS OF 70 MPH. A TORNADO OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THERE
IS ALSO A 50-70% CHANCE FOR STORMS AND A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF
5) FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY. THIS COVERS NEARLY THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA, LEAVING JUST NORTH CENTRAL SD IN A MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5). THESE STORMS LOOK TO START IN WESTERN SD IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 8 C/KM AGAIN AND MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-
3000 J/KG. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE HAIL 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND
WIND GUSTS OF 70 MPH. NAEFS IS ALSO SHOWING PWAT VALUES IN THE 90TH
PERCENTILE (1.5 INCHES) AND WPC IS HIGHLIGHTING A MARGINAL RISK OVER
MOST OF THE AREA AND A SLIGHT RISK OVER EAST CENTRAL SD FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ADDING HEAVY RAIN
TO OUR LIST OF THREATS FROM ANY STORMS THAT BECOME SEVERE. A TORNADO
OR TWO WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. INTO THE WORK WEEK, WE HAVE
50% OR LESS CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EVERY DAY AS WE CONTINUE
OUR ACTIVE PATTERN.
A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT TODAY FROM 1 PM CDT THROUGH 8 PM
CDT. JUST KEPT WHAT PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD. PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
RANGE FROM 95 TO 105 F. HRRR SMOKE IS SHOWING TWO ROUNDS OF MORE
CONCENTRATED ELEVATED SMOKE, ONE SUNDAY AND ONE MONDAY. NO SMOKE IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE SURFACE AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. WITH THE INCOMING COOLER AIR MASS, NEAR SURFACE LEVEL SMOKE
MAY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA, HOWEVER, NOT CERTAIN ON TIMING OR
CONCENTRATION LEVELS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS. STORM CHANCES ARE PRIMARILY
FOCUSED IN THE AREA OF THE KATY TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
SDZ006>008-010-011-017>023-033>037-045-048-051.
MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ039-046.
UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...10
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