101
FXUS63 KABR 280710
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
210 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A 50 TO 75 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN ENHANCED RISK, OR LEVEL 3 OUT OF 5, IS IN
PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL SD WITH A MODERATE RISK, OR LEVEL 4 OUT OF 5,
ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN SD. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH, TORNADOES, AND
HAIL 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY
PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL IN
THE LAST FEW DAYS.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD INTO
THIS EVENING, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES EXPECTED.
HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THROUGH 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING.
- LOFTED SMOKE THAT HAS DRIFTED OVER THIS AREA, FROM WILDFIRES OVER
THE WESTERN STATES, SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
- COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY, WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 209 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2025
AS OF 2 AM CDT STORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. REPORTED RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN AROUND THE 3 TO 5
INCH MARK. FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CAREFUL
IF DRIVING AND DO NOT ENTER FLOODED ROADWAYS. TEMPERATURES AROUND
THE REGION ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WITH WINDS OUT GENERALLY
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 MPH.
SPC HAS INDICATED THE POSSIBILITY OF A DERECHO THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A BOUNDARY
MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. EXACT TRACK
AND TIMING ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME BUT ALL CAMS POINT TOWARDS
THIS CONCLUSION. THIS HAS INCREASED THE SPC OUTLOOK TO AN ENHANCED
RISK, WHICH IS LEVEL 3 OUT OF 5, FOR CENTRAL SD AND A MODERATE RISK,
LEVEL 4 OUT OF 5, FOR MOST OF EASTERN SD. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 80
MPH, LARGE HAIL 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER, AND TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN AREAS
THAT HAVE HAD HEAVY RAINFALL RECENTLY. THERE WILL BE A GOOD BIT OF
SHEAR FOR STORMS TO WORK WITH (BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 45 TO 55KTS)
ALONG WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY (1500-3500 J/KM MLCAPE)
ALTHOUGH EXACT VALUES VARY BETWEEN MODELS. KEEP AN EYE ON THE
FORECAST AS WE BECOME MORE CERTAIN ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF STORMS.
TUESDAY HAS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS, AGAIN DURING THE EVENING. THIS WILL BE CONCENTRATED MAINLY
AROUND AND SOUTH OF I-90. MLCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND
1000-1500 J/KG WITH 35-45 KTS OF BULK SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES AROUND 8
C/KM. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS LOOK TO BE LARGE HAIL OF AN
INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH.
A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL SD WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AS HIGH AS 104 F. TAKE
PRECAUTIONS IF YOU PLAN TO SPEND TIME OUTSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LONG TERM WILL FEATURE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PRACTICALLY
DAILY SHOWER/STORM CHANCES AS WE CONTINUE OUR ACTIVE PATTERN. TODAY
AND TUESDAY WILL ALSO HAVE ELEVATED SMOKE FROM WESTERN FIRES. NEAR
SURFACE SMOKE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE INCOMING COOLER AIR. THE
HRRR SMOKE MODEL IS STARTING TO SHOW THAT MOVE SOUTH AND CLOSER TO
THE AREA, HOWEVER, IT DOES NOT GO OUT LONG ENOUGH TO SHOW IT
ACTUALLY REACHING THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER,
STARTING AS EARLY AS 18Z STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND DEVELOP INTO WIND PRODUCERS. SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
85 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BY 21Z NEAR KABR AND KATY. TRIED TO TIME
SOME PROB30 GROUPS FOR ALL OF THE SITES, BUT ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM
CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ033-035>037-045-048-051.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...07
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