336
FXUS63 KABR 290429 AAE
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1129 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LOFTED SMOKE THAT HAS DRIFTED OVER THIS AREA, FROM WILDFIRES OVER
THE WESTERN STATES, SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
- COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY, WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 709 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2025
HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES
HAVE FALLEN BELOW CRITERIA. OTHERWISE, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MAINLY EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER WITH ANOTHER
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. MOST OF THESE ARE
BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA, HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF
WIND GUSTS OF 60-70 MPH WITH SOME OF THIS ONGOING CONVECTION OVER
EASTERN SD INTO WEST CENTRAL MN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2025
UPDATED FORECAST FOR THE 00Z TAFS BELOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2025
UPDATED DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS BELOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1010 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2025
OVERALL IT IS CALM BEFORE THE STORM AS SATELLITE INDICATES A
BLEND OF CLOUDS AND SUN OVER THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING IN
THE LOWER TO UPPER 70S AND DEWPOINTS, QUITE HIGH, IN THE UPPER
60S. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH 8PM AS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE TO
CREATE HEAT INDICES RANGING BETWEEN 100 TO AS HIGH AS 105 DEGREES.
WE ARE STILL EXPECTING STORMS TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER
MODELS REALLY DO NOT AGREE ON EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION AT THIS
POINT. AS OF NOW, THE BEST GUESS IS THAT STORMS WILL FORM/MOVE IN
OVER NORTH CENTRAL SD BETWEEN NOON AND 3PM WITH THE STORMS FORMING
INTO A LINE RATHER QUICKLY AS IT WILL TRACK QUICKLY EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF SD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 80 MPH POSSIBLE, HAIL 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER, TORNADOES, AND
HEAVY RAINS. A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 4/5) IS IN EFFECT ALONG AND
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM BOWDLE TO GETTYSBURG WHERE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IS LIKELY. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS IN AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5).
MINOR UPDATES MADE TO THE FORECAST OTHERWISE THE OVERALL FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 209 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2025
AS OF 2 AM CDT STORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. REPORTED RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN AROUND THE 3 TO 5
INCH MARK. FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CAREFUL
IF DRIVING AND DO NOT ENTER FLOODED ROADWAYS. TEMPERATURES AROUND
THE REGION ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WITH WINDS OUT GENERALLY
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 MPH.
SPC HAS INDICATED THE POSSIBILITY OF A DERECHO THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A BOUNDARY
MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. EXACT TRACK
AND TIMING ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME BUT ALL CAMS POINT TOWARDS
THIS CONCLUSION. THIS HAS INCREASED THE SPC OUTLOOK TO AN ENHANCED
RISK, WHICH IS LEVEL 3 OUT OF 5, FOR CENTRAL SD AND A MODERATE RISK,
LEVEL 4 OUT OF 5, FOR MOST OF EASTERN SD. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 80
MPH, LARGE HAIL 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER, AND TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN AREAS
THAT HAVE HAD HEAVY RAINFALL RECENTLY. THERE WILL BE A GOOD BIT OF
SHEAR FOR STORMS TO WORK WITH (BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 45 TO 55KTS)
ALONG WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY (1500-3500 J/KM MLCAPE)
ALTHOUGH EXACT VALUES VARY BETWEEN MODELS. KEEP AN EYE ON THE
FORECAST AS WE BECOME MORE CERTAIN ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF STORMS.
TUESDAY HAS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS, AGAIN DURING THE EVENING. THIS WILL BE CONCENTRATED MAINLY
AROUND AND SOUTH OF I-90. MLCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND
1000-1500 J/KG WITH 35-45 KTS OF BULK SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES AROUND 8
C/KM. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS LOOK TO BE LARGE HAIL OF AN
INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH.
A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL SD WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AS HIGH AS 104 F. TAKE
PRECAUTIONS IF YOU PLAN TO SPEND TIME OUTSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LONG TERM WILL FEATURE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PRACTICALLY
DAILY SHOWER/STORM CHANCES AS WE CONTINUE OUR ACTIVE PATTERN. TODAY
AND TUESDAY WILL ALSO HAVE ELEVATED SMOKE FROM WESTERN FIRES. NEAR
SURFACE SMOKE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE INCOMING COOLER AIR. THE
HRRR SMOKE MODEL IS STARTING TO SHOW THAT MOVE SOUTH AND CLOSER TO
THE AREA, HOWEVER, IT DOES NOT GO OUT LONG ENOUGH TO SHOW IT
ACTUALLY REACHING THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TUESDAY AT KMBG/KPIR/KABR.
HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE SOME IFR STRATUS/FOG NEAR KATY EARLY IN THE
MORNING BEFORE IT DISSIPATES BY THE AFTERNOON.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...MMM
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...20
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