417
FXUS63 KABR 291745 AAC
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1245 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK, LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5, OF SEVERE WEATHER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. WINDS UP TO AROUND 60 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS. HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES TO QUARTERS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
- THE MINNESOTA POLLUTION CONTROL AGENCY HAS ISSUED AN AIR
QUALITY ALERT THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY FOR FINE PARTICLES
POLLUTION FOR WEST CENTRAL MN. LOFTED OR NEAR SURFACE SMOKE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
- HIGHS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1030 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
CLOUD COVER IS THE MAIN ELEMENT THAT NEEDED UPDATES THIS MORNING
AS PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS EARLIER DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. ADJUSTED SKY COVER GRIDS TO BETTER MATCH RECENT SATELLITE
TRENDS. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS HIGH RISE TO AROUND 80/LOW 80S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
MORNING FOG HAS BEEN LIMITED AS OF 0845Z, BUT LOW CLOUDS REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN MN INTO DEUEL
COUNTY. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST TRENDS. AT THIS TIME,
NO FOG HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED.
ELEVATED SMOKE WILL BECOME MORE VISIBLE DURING THE DAY TODAY
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. THE MINNESOTA POLLUTION
CONTROL AGENCY HAS ISSUED AN AIR QUALITY ALERT FOR FINE PARTICLES
POLLUTION FOR WEST CENTRAL MN THROUGH THE 11 PM TODAY. THE AQI IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE ORANGE OR UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS
CATEGORY. THE HRRR HAS HIGHLIGHTED NEAR SURFACE SMOKE WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO REDUCE VISIBILITY OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY FOR 2-8 HOURS. WE'LL CONTINUE TO FINE-TUNE
THIS FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MOST CAMS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS
EARLY AS AROUND 19Z (NAMNEST), BUT MAINLY HOLDING OFF UNTIL CLOSER
TO 21Z OVER SOUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE IF
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM MT/NE/WESTERN SD, EITHER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE WEAKENING STORMS/SHOWERS
CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN MT.
MUCH OF OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE RELATED TO THE
SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL CANADA. A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
OUR AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BEFORE EXITING OVER MINNESOTA AND
WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA. CENTRAL SD IS A BIT
TRICKIER, ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE, WHERE WE'LL HAVE A STRONGER
PUSH OF SOUTHERLY WINDS KEEPING MOISTURE NEARBY. DEWPOINTS WILL STAY
IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
WE'LL HAVE MAINLY ZONAL FLOW AT 500MB THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BEFORE THE
HIGH RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA SHIFTS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGHS FOR TODAY WERE RAISED A COUPLE OF DEGREES
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. STILL, COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S. THESE READINGS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE BACK TO SEASONAL
VALUES SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WHEN THE 25-75 NBM PERCENTILES BEGIN TO
SPREAD OUT A BIT INTO A 8-10 DEGREE RANGE, AS OPPOSED TO THE HIGHER
CONFIDENCE PRIOR TO SATURDAY WHEN THE SPREAD IS GENERALLY 4-8
DEGREES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
MVFR CIGS IN KATY AT THE VERY START OF THE TAF PERIOD SHOULD TREND
TO FEW/SCT. CHANCES FOR TSRA WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL SD (ESPECIALLY KPIR
REGION) AND INTO PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL SD. INCLUDED
TEMPO/PROB30 GROUPINGS FOR THIS, WHERE MVFR/IFR VSBY IS POSSIBLE
IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...TMT
DISCUSSION...06
AVIATION...TMT
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