909
FXUS63 KABR 292033
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
333 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. MAIN THREATS ARE HAIL UP
AROUND QUARTER SIZE AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH, ALTHOUGH HEAVY
RAIN UP TO 2 INCHES IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
- SURFACE SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH ADVERSE EFFECTS POSSIBLE IN
THOSE SENSITIVE TO SMOKE.
- HIGHS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
STARTING TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL SD AS NEXT MID-LEVEL PIECE OF ENERGY BEGINS
AFFECTING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MLCAPE VALUES ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN
1000 J/KG CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA, AND FORECAST TO STAY
PRETTY MUCH NEAR OR BELOW 1500 J/KG INTO THE EVENING HOURS. OTHER
SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE SOMEWHAT LIMITED, INCLUDING BULK SHEAR LESS
THAN 30 KNOTS. THE 18Z HRRR, ALONG WITH THE 12Z HREF REFLECTIVITY
ENSEMBLE PAINTBALL ALL SUGGEST BEST PRECIP CHANCES THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT LIE ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL SD EASTWARD INTO
SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL SD, POSSIBLY ALONG THE FSD/ABR CWA LINE.
CONSTRUCTED POPS THIS WAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH THE
NORTHEAST CWA LIKELY SEEING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. THERE ARE SOME
SIGNALS FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL TO KEEP AN EYE ON, MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CWA, WITH SOME TRAINING FEATURES SHOWING UP ON VARIOUS
CAMS. HIGHER-END QPF SOLUTIONS INDICATE AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES POSSIBLE
ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR INTO THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
JUST ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY PRESENT ON WEDNESDAY TO PERHAPS
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS, WHICH SOME
CAMS ARE SUGGESTING. POPS AT THIS TIME HAVE LOWERING PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE OF AN INFLUENCE OF THE GLANCING SURFACE HIGH MOVING TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY STILL SHOW BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 70S, WITH
LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. PRECIP CHANCES
APPEAR LIMITED DURING THIS TIME AS WELL, AS WE'LL AWAIT THE WEEKEND
BEFORE MORE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AND RESULTING INSTABILITY TRY TO MOVE
BACK INTO THE REGION.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD AND OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THIS
WEEKEND AND FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. AS THAT OCCURS, WE'LL
CONTINUE TO SEE SHORTWAVES EJECT OUT OF THE PACNW TROUGH AND SWING
ACROSS THE REGION. THAT WILL BRING OPPORTUNITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS,
BUT WITH THE WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT THERE IS THE EXPECTATION
THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE CAPPED (DUE TO WARM NOSE AROUND 800MB)
FOR CONVECTION OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. THUS, LIKE MUCH OF
THIS PAST WEEK, WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO
MOVE INTO OUR AREA, PRIMARILY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS
STARTS INITIALLY FRIDAY WITH CONVECTION LIKELY DEVELOPING IN THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS (ESPECIALLY WESTERN ND) AND OCCURRING AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. THEN AS THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS ON
SUNDAY, THAT DEVELOPMENT MAY FOCUS MORE INTO OR CLOSER TO OUR CWA
AND A COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. OF COURSE,
PINNING DOWN THESE INITIATION LOCATIONS ARE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE AT
THIS RANGE, SO CONTINUE TO FOLLOW ENSEMBLE/NBM POPS THROUGH MONDAY.
THAT POINTS TOWARDS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA HAVING THE HIGHEST
CHANCES (25-50% AT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT). SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
THERE DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF 2-4K J/KG IN PLACE
WITH THE HOT (80S TO MID 90S) AND HUMID (DEWPOINTS IN UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S) CONDITIONS IN PLACE, ALONG WITH STEEP (7-8.5C/KM) MID
LEVEL LRS. SHEAR LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE LIMITED ON FRIDAY NIGHT (20-
25KTS), BUT DOES INCREASE INTO THE 30-35KT RANGE FOR SAT/SUN. ML
SEVERE PROBS (CSU/NSSL) ALSO POINT TO AN INCREASED SEVERE POTENTIAL
DURING THE PERIOD, WITH THE GREATEST PROBS UP INTO ND. FINALLY, WITH
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED HEAT/HUMIDITY, DO HAVE HEAT INDICES RISING
INTO THE 90S AND SOME 100S APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHEAST. AT THIS
TIME, ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES ONLY POINT TO A 25-50% CHANCE OF A HEAT
ADVISORY OVER THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA ON SAT/SUN.
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL/NORTHERN CANADA ON MONDAY
WILL SUPPRESS/SHIFT THE RIDGE AXIS WESTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE
OF THE ROCKIES AND PUT THE AREA UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER AIR TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA UNDER A CANADIAN
HIGH AND BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE
MIDDLE/END OF NEXT WEEK (70S TO AROUND 80).
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
MVFR CIGS IN KATY AT THE VERY START OF THE TAF PERIOD SHOULD TREND
TO FEW/SCT. CHANCES FOR TSRA WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL SD (ESPECIALLY KPIR
REGION) AND INTO PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL SD. INCLUDED
TEMPO/PROB30 GROUPINGS FOR THIS, WHERE MVFR/IFR VSBY IS POSSIBLE
IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...TMT
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