257
FXUS63 KABR 292034 CCA
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
334 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. MAIN THREATS ARE HAIL UP
AROUND QUARTER SIZE AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH, ALTHOUGH HEAVY
RAIN UP TO 2 INCHES IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
- SURFACE SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH ADVERSE EFFECTS POSSIBLE IN
THOSE SENSITIVE TO SMOKE.
- HIGHS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
STARTING TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL SD AS NEXT MID-LEVEL PIECE OF ENERGY BEGINS
AFFECTING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MLCAPE VALUES ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN
1000 J/KG CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA, AND FORECAST TO STAY
PRETTY MUCH NEAR OR BELOW 1500 J/KG INTO THE EVENING HOURS. OTHER
SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE SOMEWHAT LIMITED, INCLUDING BULK SHEAR LESS
THAN 30 KNOTS. THE 18Z HRRR, ALONG WITH THE 12Z HREF REFLECTIVITY
ENSEMBLE PAINTBALL ALL SUGGEST BEST PRECIP CHANCES THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT LIE ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL SD EASTWARD INTO
SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL SD, POSSIBLY ALONG THE FSD/ABR CWA LINE.
CONSTRUCTED POPS THIS WAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH THE
NORTHEAST CWA LIKELY SEEING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. THERE ARE SOME
SIGNALS FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL TO KEEP AN EYE ON, MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CWA, WITH SOME TRAINING FEATURES SHOWING UP ON VARIOUS
CAMS. HIGHER-END QPF SOLUTIONS INDICATE AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES POSSIBLE
ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR INTO THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
JUST ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY PRESENT ON WEDNESDAY TO PERHAPS
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS, WHICH SOME
CAMS ARE SUGGESTING. POPS AT THIS TIME HAVE LOWERING PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE OF AN INFLUENCE OF THE GLANCING SURFACE HIGH MOVING TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY STILL SHOW BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 70S, WITH
LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. PRECIP CHANCES
APPEAR LIMITED DURING THIS TIME AS WELL, AS WE'LL AWAIT THE WEEKEND
BEFORE MORE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AND RESULTING INSTABILITY TRY TO MOVE
BACK INTO THE REGION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
MVFR CIGS IN KATY AT THE VERY START OF THE TAF PERIOD SHOULD TREND
TO FEW/SCT. CHANCES FOR TSRA WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL SD (ESPECIALLY KPIR
REGION) AND INTO PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL SD. INCLUDED
TEMPO/PROB30 GROUPINGS FOR THIS, WHERE MVFR/IFR VSBY IS POSSIBLE
IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...TMT
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