306
FXUS63 KABR 301540 AAB
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1040 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TODAY AND TONIGHT, AGAIN FRIDAY,
THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
- SURFACE SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. MONITOR THE LATEST FROM THE EPA AND STATE
AGENCIES, AS THERE MAY BE IMPACTS FOR THOSE SENSITIVE TO SMOKE.
- HIGHS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1039 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE TODAY PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
SHOWERS REMAIN OVER SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES, WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
OVER NORTH CENTRAL SD EARLY THIS MORNING. VISIBILITY AND AT ABR AND
OVER PORTIONS OF ND HAVE BEEN 3-7 MILES, WITH THE CLOUD COVER LIKELY
LIMITING THICKER FOG FROM FORMING AT THIS TIME. THE LOWEST
VISIBILITY REMAINS OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
REMAINS LIMITED, WITH THE NEAREST LIGHTNING STRIKES IN SOUTHWESTERN
ND OR WESTERN NE. AT LEAST AT 0930Z.
SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN, WITH THE EPA PAGE
FIRE.AIRNOW.GOV SHOWING SENSORS IN THE YELLOW TO RED CATEGORIES
NORTHEAST OF ABR. THE LOWEST REMAINS OVER ND AND NORTHERN MN. AN AIR
QUALITY ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED BY THE MINNESOTA POLLUTION CONTROL
AGENCY FOR FINE PARTICLES POLLUTION WITH THE AIR QUALITY INDEX (AQI)
IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE RED OR UNHEALTHY CATEGORY. AT THIS
TIME, THE ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH 5PM SATURDAY.
THE SURFACE HIGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL PUSH A RIDGE OF
MAINLY DRY HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THE HIGH WILL TRACK OVER EASTERN ND/NORTHERN
MN BY 12Z THURSDAY AND OVER MN AND NORTHERN WI BY 06Z FRIDAY BEFORE
SINKING OVER SOUTHERN MN/WI THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY EAST
ACROSS WI/IA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WHILE DRY WEATHER WILL STAY
OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES, THE WEST WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND
AN ELONGATED TROUGH OFF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE/LOW CHANCE (20-40%) CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE WEEK. THE OTHER
INFLUENCE OF THE COOLER AIR SINKING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL BE THE
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S, OR AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 40% CWA WIDE THIS
WEEKEND, BEHIND THE EXITING HIGH. STILL, SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS
LIMITED AT THIS TIME. EVEN THE NCAR MEDIUM-RANGE CONVECTIVE HAZARD
FORECASTS SHOW THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK LOOK TO RETURN TO SEASONAL
NORMAL VALUES BY NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
MAINLY VFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAIN
CONCERNS WITH BE EARLY MORNING FOG AT ABR WHICH IS DOWN TO 6SM
VIS. OTHERWISE, SMOKE WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. NEAR THE SURFACE
ACROSS MN AND ND (VIS DOWN TO 5SM AT FAR WITH SMOKE BEING
REPORTED) WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE OVER NORTHEASTERN SD AND MAY BRING
VISIBILITY DOWN TO 5-6SM TODAY. AT THIS TIME, THE HIGHER
CONCENTRATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY TO OUR NORTH.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...06
AVIATION...06
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page