344  
FXUS63 KABR 301718 AAC  
AFDABR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD  
1218 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- THERE IS A 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TODAY AND TONIGHT, AGAIN  
FRIDAY, THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND  
SUNDAY. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.  
 
- SURFACE SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE  
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. MONITOR THE LATEST FROM THE EPA AND STATE  
AGENCIES, AS THERE MAY BE IMPACTS FOR THOSE SENSITIVE TO SMOKE.  
 
- HIGHS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW  
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  
 

 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2025  
 
SEE BELOW FOR AN AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS.  
 
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1039 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2025  
 
NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE TODAY PERIOD.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2025  
 
SHOWERS REMAIN OVER SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES, WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS  
OVER NORTH CENTRAL SD EARLY THIS MORNING. VISIBILITY AND AT ABR AND  
OVER PORTIONS OF ND HAVE BEEN 3-7 MILES, WITH THE CLOUD COVER LIKELY  
LIMITING THICKER FOG FROM FORMING AT THIS TIME. THE LOWEST  
VISIBILITY REMAINS OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY  
REMAINS LIMITED, WITH THE NEAREST LIGHTNING STRIKES IN SOUTHWESTERN  
ND OR WESTERN NE. AT LEAST AT 0930Z.  
 
SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN, WITH THE EPA PAGE  
FIRE.AIRNOW.GOV SHOWING SENSORS IN THE YELLOW TO RED CATEGORIES  
NORTHEAST OF ABR. THE LOWEST REMAINS OVER ND AND NORTHERN MN. AN AIR  
QUALITY ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED BY THE MINNESOTA POLLUTION CONTROL  
AGENCY FOR FINE PARTICLES POLLUTION WITH THE AIR QUALITY INDEX (AQI)  
IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE RED OR UNHEALTHY CATEGORY. AT THIS  
TIME, THE ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH 5PM SATURDAY.  
 
THE SURFACE HIGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL PUSH A RIDGE OF  
MAINLY DRY HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE  
REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THE HIGH WILL TRACK OVER EASTERN ND/NORTHERN  
MN BY 12Z THURSDAY AND OVER MN AND NORTHERN WI BY 06Z FRIDAY BEFORE  
SINKING OVER SOUTHERN MN/WI THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY EAST  
ACROSS WI/IA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WHILE DRY WEATHER WILL STAY  
OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES, THE WEST WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND  
AN ELONGATED TROUGH OFF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT  
CHANCE/LOW CHANCE (20-40%) CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW  
THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE WEEK. THE OTHER  
INFLUENCE OF THE COOLER AIR SINKING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL BE THE  
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S, OR AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL  
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.  
 
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 40% CWA WIDE THIS  
WEEKEND, BEHIND THE EXITING HIGH. STILL, SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS  
LIMITED AT THIS TIME. EVEN THE NCAR MEDIUM-RANGE CONVECTIVE HAZARD  
FORECASTS SHOW THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK LOOK TO RETURN TO SEASONAL  
NORMAL VALUES BY NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2025  
 
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG  
 
VFR (CIGS) CONDITIONS WILL BE TRUMPED BY MVFR VISIBILITY FROM  
SMOKE THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID PERIOD. IN FACT, THE NEAR SURFACE  
SMOKE MAY CAUSE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WELL BEYOND THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SD...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...10  
DISCUSSION...06  
AVIATION...10  
 
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