204
FXUS63 KABR 231722
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1222 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY WILL RUN ABOUT 5 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL, MEANING HIGHS IS THE 60S AND 70S WITH LOWS IN THE
40S AND 50S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2025
NO MAJOR UPDATES. SHALLOW DAYTIME DRIVEN CU IN THE NORTHEAST WILL
PROBABLY REOCCUR AGAIN THAT WAY TOMORROW.
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 148 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2025
OVERALL DRY WEATHER AND FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AS THE REGION IS
IN BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS WITH CLUSTERS OVERALL AGREEING ON THIS PATTERN
CONTINUING THROUGH THE MIDWEEK. CLUSTERS THEN SHOW THE RIDGE FINALLY
STARTING TO PUSH SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARDS THE END OF WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. MODELS DO DIVERGE FROM EACH OTHER AT THIS POINT ON EXACT
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE AS IT DOES SO. AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE THROUGH TUESDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING
OFF TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS STABLE AIR MASS IN
PLACE, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH MODELS/NBM NOT
REALLY HINTING AT ANY PRECIP (15-25%) UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
ONLY CAVEAT IS THAT OUR FAR EASTERN CWA COULD SEE ISOLATED SPRINKLES
FROM THE LOW CLOUDS/WEAK ENERGY PULSES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HRRR/HIRESARW/NSSL-WFR
SHOW THIS POTENTIAL SO ADDED SPRINKLE (10%) MENTION.
NAEFS INDICATES 700-850MB TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE WE START TO SEE
TEMPERATURES RUN BACK AROUND AVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK. OVERALL HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE MID 60S TO THE UPPER 70S
THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE COOLEST TEMPS OVER THE COTEAU AND WARMEST
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE 40S AND
50S. THESE TEMPS RUN ABOUT 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH EC EFI
FOR BOTH TMAX/TMIN VALUES RANGING FROM -0.6 TO -0.9 THROUGH MONDAY.
JUMP AHEAD TO WEDNESDAY AND TEMPS WILL BE BACK IN THE MID/UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S, WHICH IS ABOUT AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NBM 25-
75TH SPREAD IS ABOUT 4 TO 5 DEGREES THOUGH TUESDAY, WHICH IS NOT BAD
AND GIVES US HIGHER CONFIDENCE ON THESE FORECASTED TEMPS. HOWEVER,
THE SPREAD INCREASES TO AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES FOR THE END OF NEXT
WEEK DUE TO HOW FAST OR SLOW THE WARMER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE RIDGE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS ON A NORTH BREEZE. KATY WILL HAVE A CEILING, BUT
FROM HERE IT WILL BE VFR. CLOSE TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WE
COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS BACK AT KATY.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...07
DISCUSSION...MMM
AVIATION...07
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page