288
FXUS63 KABR 242028
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
328 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY,
BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2025
THE FLAT FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT HAVE BEEN ABUNDANT DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ARE STARTING TO FADE ON
THE WESTERN EDGE OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS
DAYTIME HEATING DIMINISHES THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS, WITH A CLEAR OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT. DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE NEAREST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAINING OVER EITHER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL SD OR
NE.
THE SURFACE WEATHER MAP AT 20Z SHOWED THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR THE SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER, WITH THE RIDGE
EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH ND AND SD. AT 500MB THE MAIN FEATURES ARE
THE LOW NEAR JAMES BAY WITH A LARGE TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
U.S. AND A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY. LIGHT WINDS AND A CLEAR SKY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE TYPICALLY
RESULTS IN OVERNIGHT LOWS BEING A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW FORECAST
GUIDANCE. WE DID DROP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY, WITH A BLEND TO THE NBM
25TH PERCENTILE. HOWEVER, WITH THE 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILES WITHIN
3 DEGREES FOR EXAMPLE AT ABR, THE OVERALL CHANGE WAS MINIMAL.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL RESIDE OVER EASTERN SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN
FROM 15Z MONDAY TO APPROXIMATELY 12Z TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING ACROSS IA.
DURING THE SAME TIME THE 500MB RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS BUT
BECOME SURPRESSED AS THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP ACROSS
TX. WE WILL EXPERIENCE A RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. THERE IS A
SUBTLE KINK IN THE 500MB FLOW, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A DISTURBANCE
TO ADD EITHER A FEW MORE CLOUDS (ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH),
OR EVEN PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA. AT THIS POINT WE'LL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY, WITH THE KNOWLEDGE THAT VARIABILITY AND UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. A HIGHER CHANCE (20-40% CHANCE)
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH NEARING FROM THE WEST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...06
AVIATION...06
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