451
FXUS63 KABR 250518 AAC
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1218 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MONDAY, BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES TUESDAY THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2025
UPDATED FORECAST FOR THE 06Z TAFS BELOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 820 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2025
NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE TONIGHT PERIOD FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2025
SEE BELOW FOR AN AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2025
THE FLAT FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT HAVE BEEN ABUNDANT DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ARE STARTING TO FADE ON
THE WESTERN EDGE OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS
DAYTIME HEATING DIMINISHES THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS, WITH A CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT. DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE NEAREST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAINING OVER EITHER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL SD OR
NE.
THE SURFACE WEATHER MAP AT 20Z SHOWED THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR THE SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER, WITH THE RIDGE
EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH ND AND SD. AT 500MB, THE MAIN FEATURES
ARE THE LOW NEAR JAMES BAY WITH A LARGE TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN U.S. AND A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. LIGHT WINDS AND A CLEAR SKY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE TYPICALLY RESULTS IN OVERNIGHT LOWS BEING A COUPLE
DEGREES BELOW FORECAST GUIDANCE. WE DID DROP TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY, WITH A BLEND TO THE NBM 25TH PERCENTILE. HOWEVER, WITH
THE 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILES WITHIN 3 DEGREES FOR EXAMPLE AT ABR,
THE OVERALL CHANGE WAS MINIMAL.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL RESIDE OVER EASTERN SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN
FROM 15Z MONDAY TO APPROXIMATELY 12Z TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING ACROSS IA.
DURING THE SAME TIME THE 500MB RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BUT BECOME SURPRESSED AS THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SETS UP ACROSS TX. WE WILL EXPERIENCE A RETURN TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.
THERE IS A SUBTLE KINK IN THE 500MB FLOW, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
A DISTURBANCE TO ADD EITHER A FEW MORE CLOUDS (ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH), OR EVEN PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA. AT THIS POINT
WE'LL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY, WITH THE KNOWLEDGE THAT VARIABILITY
AND UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. A HIGHER
CHANCE (20-40% CHANCE) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH NEARING FROM
THE WEST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...MMM
DISCUSSION...06
AVIATION...MMM
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