895
FXUS63 KABR 250727
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
227 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES TUESDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 155 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2025
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT OVER THE REGION AS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE US SITS UNDERNEATH A BROAD LONGWAVE RIDGE, WITH THE HEIGHT OF
THE RIDGE STRETCHING WELL ACROSS ALASKA AND NORTHERN CANADA! UNDER
THE RIDGE, A CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC
WITH A TROUGH/MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US. NOT
MUCH MOVEMENT IN THIS OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
EASTWARD SHIFT ON WEDNESDAY. CLUSTERS OVERALL AGREE ON THE AXIS OF
THE RIDGE PARKING ITSELF OVER THE CENTRAL US/ROCKIES, AS AN OMEGA
BLOCK PATTERN, FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND CONTINUING INTO THE
WEEKEND. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLES ON EXACT
AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE AND EXACT LOCATION OF THE AXIS. WINDS ALOFT
WILL SWITCH FROM ZONAL AND NORTHWEST FLOW DURING THIS TIME OVER THE
REGION. AT THE SURFACE, A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT DOWN FROM CANADA AND BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING. IT WILL DRIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY INTO
TONIGHT WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER IA BY 12Z TUESDAY AND OVER
IL BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY AND QUIET UNTIL
FRIDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST (UNDER THE
RIDGE) ALONG WITH ITS SURFACE TROUGH/LEE LOW. NBM INDICATES A 30-50%
CHANCE OF POPS IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING, MAINLY OVER CENTRAL SD. THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THE PRECIP LOOKS TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS
THE CWA WITH THE WEAK LEE LOW AND/OR TROUGH. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
ON EXACT DETAILS/TIMING AS THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT. MACHINE
LEARNING SEVERE GUIDANCE (CSU/CIPS) DOES NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS TIME.
A TASTE OF FALL IS IN THE AIR AS 700-850MB TEMPS TODAY AND TUESDAY
WILL RUN ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMO PER NAEFS AND GEFS
M-CLIMATE ANOMALY. THIS OCCURS ONE DAY EVERY 2-5 YEARS PER NAEFS
RETURN INTERVAL. HIGHS FOR TODAY ARE FORECASTED IN THE MID 60S TO
THE UPPER 70S WITH THE COOLEST TEMPS EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER
(OVERALL 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE). CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL LEAD TO RADIATIONAL COOLING ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS TEMPS ARE
FORECASTED TO DROP IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 (5-10
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE), HOWEVER, A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND MAY KEEP
THESE TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER AT ANY GIVE LOCATION THAN WHAT WE
HAD THIS MORNING. RETURN FLOW AT 850MB AND THIS EASTWARD SHIFT OF
WARMER AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM BACK INTO THE 70S TO THE MID 80S
ON TUESDAY WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS OVER CENTRAL SD. WEDNESDAY LOOKS
TO BE OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS 850MB TEMPS AT PEAK HEATING
RANGE FROM 15 TO 19C AS HIGHS ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE IN THE UPPER
70S TO THE UPPER 80S (ABOUT AVERAGE) WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS OVER
CENTRAL SD ONCE AGAIN. THIS IS ALSO WHEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS
(AND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK) AS DEWPOINTS WILL RISE BACK INTO
THE UPPER 50S INTO THE 60S. HIGHS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND AVERAGE IN THE 70S AND 80S WITH THE NBM 25-
75TH SPREAD ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MMM
AVIATION...MMM
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