039
FXUS63 KABR 252342 AAA
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
642 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH LESS INTENSE
HUMIDITY TO CONTINUE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2025
SEE BELOW FOR AN AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2025
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MAKE A SLOW PROGRESSION ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA AND CONUS. THERE IS A RE-ENFORCING WAVE ON THE BACK EDGE OF
THIS SYSTEM AS IT CONTINUES EAST FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. AT THE
SURFACE THAT TRANSLATES TO THIS BROAD/EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE, WITH
A NARROW RIBBON OF WARMER/SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR ON THE BACKSIDE
MOVING INTO OUR AREA FOR WEDNESDAY ONLY TO HAVE ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM FOLLOW THROUGH THE WESTERN LAKES REGION FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF THIS HIGH PROVIDES FOR A SUBTLE
COOL DOWN FOR LATE WEEK. BY LATE FRIDAY WE GET INTO RETURN FLOW OFF
THIS HIGH, JUST AS WE SEE A WEAK SHORTWAVE SPIT OUT OF A PACIFIC
NORTHWEST UPPER TROUGH. THIS IS A SLOW MOVING WAVE THAT TAKES INTO
NEXT WEEK BEFORE CROSSING OUT OF THE DAKOTAS. THIS WAVE PROVIDES US
WITH A LONG DURATION OF GENERALLY LOW POPS, BUT THIS IS IN GENERAL
DUE TO A WIDE ARRAY OF OUTCOMES ON TIMING/INTENSITY OF THE
WAVE/SURFACE SYSTEM PRESENTED BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND
ENSEMBLES THAT SHOWS UP IN CLUSTER PHASE SPACE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
GOOD VFR IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...10
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