498
FXUS63 KABR 261138 AAA
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
638 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF MOISTURE RETURNING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2025
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2025
RIDGING CONTINUES ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ALONG WITH A CUT OFF
MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE PACIFIC AND TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
THIS LEAVES THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN ONGOING NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS
PATTERN SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
MORE REINFORCED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BY THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO SATURDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE PULSES OFF THIS PACIFIC LOW WILL
RIDE UP AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE, AND
DOWNWARD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH A MORE NOTABLE
SLOWER MOVING SHORTWAVE/SERIES OF PULSES SWINGING DOWN INTO REGION
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
AT THE SURFACE, THIS LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK SOUTHEAST TODAY OVER THE CENTRAL MIDWEST WITH THE CWA ON THE
NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE HIGH. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS HIGH, THE AXIS
OF A WEST TO EAST SURFACE TROUGH/WARM FRONT SETS UP THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PART OF SD INTO WEDNESDAY (PER A LEE LOW OVER WY).
THIS WILL BRING THE RETURN OF SOME HUMIDITY AS DEWPOINTS WILL RISE
BACK INTO THE 50S TODAY AND 50S/LOWER 60S FOR WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS
WEAK SHORTWAVE PULSE AND SURFACE TROUGH, HREF AND FEW OF THE CAMS
INDICATE THE RETURN OF POSSIBLE ISOLATED PRECIP OVER OUR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH THE BETTER CONVECTION STAYING EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE CWA. NBM HAS ADDED A 15% CHANCE OF POPS FOR THIS LOCATION.
MARGINAL CAPE/DAYTIME HEATING COULD LEAD TO A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
WITH NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED. OTHERWISE, A DRY BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT PLUNGES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY, AHEAD OF
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
ONTARIO AT 12Z THURSDAY. THIS BROAD HIGH THEN TRACKS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY, LEAVING THE FAR EASTERN HALF OF
THE DAKOTAS (MODEL DEPENDING) ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS HIGH.
WEST OF HERE, A SURFACE LEE LOW (LIFT ALOFT FROM THIS NEXT
SHORTWAVE) SETS UP OVER WESTERN SD/EASTERN WY/MT AND WILL TRACK
SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD AND INTO NORTHERN NE THROUGH
SUNDAY (TRACK BETWEEN MODELS VARY A BIT). THIS WILL BRING THE RETURN
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA WITH NBM POPS OF 30-50%
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MO RIVER FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING. MOISTURE THEN
EXPANDS EASTWARD OVER THE CWA WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW SATURDAY,
WITH POPS OF 40-60% JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND WESTWARD, WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD, CLOSER TO THE LOW. 20-30 PERCENT
POPS CONTINUE SUNDAY. IT MAY BE HARD TO SQUEEZE OUT MUCH
MOISTURE/QPF EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER DUE TO THIS HIGH OVERHEAD.
ADDITIONAL SLIGHT POPS CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK PER ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW. PROBABILITY OF QPF>0.25"
12Z FRIDAY-12Z SUNDAY OVER THE CWA IS 25-55% GEFS, 10-80% ENS, AND
NBM 20-60%. THEY ALL AGREE ON THE HIGHEST PERCENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
SD AND LOWEST OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN SD. PROB OF 0.50" OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL SD IS ABOUT 50% BOTH ENS/NBM. SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THIS AREA BUT EXACT TIMING/TOTALS ARE LOWER
CONFIDENCE DUE TO THIS BEING A FEW DAYS OUT AND GIVEN THIS IS
SUMMERTIME CONVECTION. MACHINE LEARNING SEVERE GUIDANCE DOES NOT
INDICATE SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WITH THIS AS OF NOW.
WARMER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE WEST WITH TEMPS BACK INTO THE 70S
INTO THE LOWER 80S TODAY, WHICH IS AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE. OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S (ABOUT AVERAGE). GRADUAL COOLDOWN FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND ONLY IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80, WHICH IS BACK DOWN TO 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH LIGHT
WINDS. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHES OF FG/BR ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS, WILL LEAVE
MENTION OUT OF TAFS FOR THE TIME BEING.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...TMT
DISCUSSION...MMM
AVIATION...TMT
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