093
FXUS63 KABR 261933
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
233 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
- LOW CHANCE (20%) FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER/WEAK THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
WEDNESDAY AROUND THE WATERTOWN/BROOKINGS AREAS.
- BETTER CHANCES FOR MOISTURE (20-60%) FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH
THE HIGHER MOISTURE POTENTIAL IN WESTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
- AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND START OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2025
JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME CONVECTION WEDNESDAY, WHETHER ITS
WITH THE WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION PUSH EARLY OR ONCE WE GET INTO
DAYTIME HEATING LATE. NOT MUCH SUPPORT ALOFT, JUST A WEAK LITTLE
WAVE IN THE NAM BUT WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ITS NOT SO OUTSIDE THE
REALM OF POSSIBILITIES. BACKDOOR FRONT FOLLOWS FOR THURSDAY SHIFTING
WINDS TO NORTHEAST WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS SET FOR
FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY, WITH SOME OF THE COOLER TEMPERATURES OWING
TO THE WEAK WAVE CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE WEEKEND.
RATHER WEAK, BAROTROPIC SYSTEM SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO UPPER LOWS
MEANING MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED SHEAR. HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES FOR 0.5 AND 0.25 INCHES OF MOISTURE IN 48 HOURS IS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AT 50-50 AND 70% RESPECTIVELY,
WITH JUST A 30-40% CHANCE FOR 0.25 INCHES FOR ABERDEEN AND MOBRIDGE.
THERE IS STILL ABOUT AN 8 DEGREE SPREAD IN THE BOX AND WHISKERS FOR
HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, SO STILL SOME DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO
HOW WARM IT ACTUALLY GETS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS FOR KPIR/KMBG. UNSURE IF WE WILL SEE FOG AT KABR
BUT SEEMS BETTER LOCATION IS KATY. MAYBE JUST AN HOUR OR TWO FOR
MVFR VISBY GIVEN HOW DRY THE ATMOSPHERE IS. WINDS PREDOMINANTLY
SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...07
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