503
FXUS63 KABR 270113 AAB
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
813 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
- LOW CHANCE (20%) FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER/WEAK THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
WEDNESDAY AROUND THE WATERTOWN/BROOKINGS AREAS.
- BETTER CHANCES FOR MOISTURE (20-60%) FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH THE
HIGHER MOISTURE POTENTIAL IN WESTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
- AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND START OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 758 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2025
KEEPING TABS ON THE SOUTHERN FORECAST ZONES TONIGHT WHERE THE
LEE-OF-THE-BLACK-HILLS (WEST-EAST ORIENTED) SURFACE TROF EXTENDS
OUT TO. THIS IS WHERE A LOW LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SEEING A LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE POOLING ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY WHERE THERE HAS BEEN SOME MODEST MID-LEVEL WAA OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. NOT MUCH FOR MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVES/LIFT, BUT
THERE IS A 70KT UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX IN THE VICINITY. AN AREA
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM PIERRE TO WATERTOWN WOULD BE WHERE SOME
20-30 PERCENT POPS FOR SHOWERS/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MAY NEED TO BE
ADDED TONIGHT, EVENTUALLY. LEFT THE PATCHY FOG MENTION GOING AS
WELL. OTHERWISE, NO OTHER CHANGES ARE BEING CONSIDERED AT THIS
TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2025
SEE BELOW FOR AN AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2025
JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME CONVECTION WEDNESDAY, WHETHER ITS
WITH THE WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION PUSH EARLY OR ONCE WE GET INTO
DAYTIME HEATING LATE. NOT MUCH SUPPORT ALOFT, JUST A WEAK LITTLE
WAVE IN THE NAM BUT WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ITS NOT SO OUTSIDE THE
REALM OF POSSIBILITIES. BACKDOOR FRONT FOLLOWS FOR THURSDAY SHIFTING
WINDS TO NORTHEAST WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS SET FOR
FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY, WITH SOME OF THE COOLER TEMPERATURES OWING
TO THE WEAK WAVE CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE WEEKEND.
RATHER WEAK, BAROTROPIC SYSTEM SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO UPPER LOWS
MEANING MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED SHEAR. HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES FOR 0.5 AND 0.25 INCHES OF MOISTURE IN 48 HOURS IS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AT 50-50 AND 70% RESPECTIVELY,
WITH JUST A 30-40% CHANCE FOR 0.25 INCHES FOR ABERDEEN AND MOBRIDGE.
THERE IS STILL ABOUT AN 8 DEGREE SPREAD IN THE BOX AND WHISKERS FOR
HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, SO STILL SOME DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO
HOW WARM IT ACTUALLY GETS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS FOR KPIR/KMBG AND PROBABLY KABR. UNSURE IF WE WILL
SEE FOG AT KABR BUT SEEMS BETTER LOCATION IS KATY. MAYBE JUST AN
HOUR OR TWO FOR MVFR VISBY GIVEN HOW DRY THE ATMOSPHERE IS. WINDS
PREDOMINANTLY BETWEEN AN EAST AND A SOUTH DIRECTION.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...10
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