549
FXUS63 KABR 270545 AAC
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1245 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
- LOW CHANCE (20%) FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER/WEAK THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
WEDNESDAY AROUND THE WATERTOWN/BROOKINGS AREAS.
- BETTER CHANCES FOR MOISTURE (20-60%) FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH THE
HIGHER MOISTURE POTENTIAL IN WESTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
- AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND START OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2025
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 758 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2025
KEEPING TABS ON THE SOUTHERN FORECAST ZONES TONIGHT WHERE THE
LEE-OF-THE-BLACK-HILLS (WEST-EAST ORIENTED) SURFACE TROF EXTENDS
OUT TO. THIS IS WHERE A LOW LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SEEING A LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE POOLING ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY WHERE THERE HAS BEEN SOME MODEST MID-LEVEL WAA OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. NOT MUCH FOR MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVES/LIFT, BUT
THERE IS A 70KT UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX IN THE VICINITY. AN AREA
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM PIERRE TO WATERTOWN WOULD BE WHERE SOME
20-30 PERCENT POPS FOR SHOWERS/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MAY NEED TO BE
ADDED TONIGHT, EVENTUALLY. LEFT THE PATCHY FOG MENTION GOING AS
WELL. OTHERWISE, NO OTHER CHANGES ARE BEING CONSIDERED AT THIS
TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2025
JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME CONVECTION WEDNESDAY, WHETHER ITS
WITH THE WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION PUSH EARLY OR ONCE WE GET INTO
DAYTIME HEATING LATE. NOT MUCH SUPPORT ALOFT, JUST A WEAK LITTLE
WAVE IN THE NAM BUT WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ITS NOT SO OUTSIDE THE
REALM OF POSSIBILITIES. BACKDOOR FRONT FOLLOWS FOR THURSDAY SHIFTING
WINDS TO NORTHEAST WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS SET FOR
FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY, WITH SOME OF THE COOLER TEMPERATURES OWING
TO THE WEAK WAVE CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE WEEKEND.
RATHER WEAK, BAROTROPIC SYSTEM SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO UPPER LOWS
MEANING MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED SHEAR. HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES FOR 0.5 AND 0.25 INCHES OF MOISTURE IN 48 HOURS IS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AT 50-50 AND 70% RESPECTIVELY,
WITH JUST A 30-40% CHANCE FOR 0.25 INCHES FOR ABERDEEN AND MOBRIDGE.
THERE IS STILL ABOUT AN 8 DEGREE SPREAD IN THE BOX AND WHISKERS FOR
HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, SO STILL SOME DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO
HOW WARM IT ACTUALLY GETS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
CURRENTLY, VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION, BUT WILL
BE CLOSELY WATCHING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR CIGS AND FG/BR IN AN
AREA BETWEEN THE MISSOURI AND JAMES RIVERS BY SUNRISE. WHETHER OR
NOT THE AREAL COVERAGE IS GREAT ENOUGH TO AFFECT KMBG/KPIR/KABR IS
THE BIG QUESTION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AMEND TAFS AS
NECESSARY IF LOWER CLOUDS/FOG DEVELOP AND BEGIN TO SPREAD TOWARDS
A TERMINAL. SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...TMT
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...TMT/10
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