127
FXUS63 KABR 271413 AAB
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
913 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CHANCE (20%) FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER/WEAK THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
TODAY AROUND THE WATERTOWN/BROOKINGS AREAS.
- BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS (40-60%) FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY WITH THE
HIGHER MOISTURE POTENTIAL IN WESTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
- AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND START OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 912 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2025
ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE THIS MORNING.
VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 426 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2025
SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW FOG SLOWLY SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
FAULK/POTTER/HAND/EDMUNDS COUNTIES, LINING UP FAIRLY WELL WHERE HI-
RES MODELS SHOWED LOWERED VISIBILITY UP THROUGH SUNRISE. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WX GRIDS TO BETTER ALIGN FOG MENTION TO
SATELLITE/MODEL TRENDS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RADAR HAS
BEEN RATHER QUIET THUS FAR IN REGARDS TO THE ELEVATED THUNDERSHOWER
POTENTIAL ALONG THE FSD/ABR CWA BORDER INTO THE WATERTOWN REGION
THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. JUST A FEW SPRINKLES NOTED EARLIER IN HAND COUNTY
AND NOW IN SOUTHERN SPINK.
MAIN THING TO WATCH LATER TODAY IS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SETS UP
FROM SOUTHERN SD UP THROUGH EAST CENTRAL SD, INCLUDING THE FAR
SOUTHEAST CWA. CAMS/PAINTBALL OUTPUT (REFLECTIVITY, UH, NH PROBS,
ETC.) SHOW SOME LIMITED POTENTIAL/SIGNALS FOR WEAK/MARGINAL
CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WE DO HAVE
SUPPORT ALOFT FROM A VORT MAX MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN ND
EARLY THIS MORNING. DID INSERT SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CWA, BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON PLACEMENT AND AREAL
COVERAGE. OTHERWISE, WILL SEE ANOTHER DAY OF RATHER LIGHT WINDS AS
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION.
DEWPOINTS START TO INCREASE A BIT AS WELL AND TOP OUT AROUND 60-65
DEGREES OVER SOUTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TODAY.
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY, BUT
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF TEMPERATURE CHANGE BEHIND IT AS THE AREA ONCE
AGAIN WARMS INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. ANY SHOWER POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA LOOKS A BIT LESS ON THURSDAY, BUT CERTAINLY A
"NON-ZERO" POP SCENARIO. MOISTURE LAYER ALOFT LOOKS RATHER SHALLOW
TO SUPPORT NOTHING MUCH THAN SOME SPRINKLES, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.
LOOKING AHEAD TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AND WE'RE STILL WATCHING THE
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE/ENERGY
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES (50-60%) REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST CWA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A NOTABLE SHIFT TO A
QUICKER/FURTHER EAST SOLUTION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE GEFS CAMP, ADDING
A BIT OF A WRINKLE INTO THE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN THIS WEEKEND. REGARDLESS, GEPS/ENS STILL HOLDING ONTO THE
IDEA THAT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST 0.25IN PRECIPITATION
REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE WE SEE VALUES OF 80-90% (ENS)
TO AROUND 60-70% (GEPS).
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
AREAS OF FG/BR ARE AFFECTING CENTRAL/NORTHEAST SD THIS MORNING,
INCLUDING KABR AND POTENTIALLY KPIR/KMBG. IFR/MVFR VSBY CAN BE
EXPECTED AT KABR UNTIL ABOUT 14Z, WITH LESS CHANCES OF THIS AT
KPIR/KMBG. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY ONCE THE FOG
BURNS OFF. A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A STRAY -SHRA/-TSRA NEAR KATY
THIS AFTERNOON. POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR MORE FG/BR LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING, BUT WILL LOOK MORE INTO THIS AT THE 18Z/00Z
TAF ISSUANCES.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...20
DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...TMT
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