344
FXUS63 KABR 281926
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
226 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASED CHANCES (50-70%) FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY WITH
THE HIGHER MOISTURE POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
- COOLER (BELOW NORMAL) TEMPERATURES IN STORE BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE 60S, LOWS IN THE 40S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
AFTERNOON CUMULUS HAS FORMED IN SPITE OF THE MID LEVEL DRY AIR
LAYER. STILL EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS TO REMAIN OUTSIDE THE CWA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WE LOSE THAT DRY LAYER AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THAT
POINT, BETWEEN SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SFC LOW MOVING OFF THE
ROCKIES, CENTRAL SD WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
FARTHER EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AMPLIFIED BY A 700 AND 500 MB LOW
ACROSS NORTHERN SD THAT SINKS SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE BIG QUESTION MARK IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG FRIDAY MORNING. THERE
IS STILL AMPLE LLM, BUT THE EASTERN EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER DIFFERS
BETWEEN MODELS. SO, PRETTY CONFIDENT THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY DENSE
FOG SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA, BUT LESS CONFIDENT ABOUT WHERE IT WILL
DEVELOP.
ONLY OTHER FORECAST NOTE IN THE EXTENDED IS THE ANTICIPATED COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPS BY MID WEEK. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE
60S TO LOWER 70S, ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. FOG AND STRATUS
MAY REDEVELOP IN THE MORNING. PINPOINTING LOCATIONS IS DIFFICULT
AT THIS TIME, BUT ADDED IN SOME IFR CONDITIONS AT KABR AND KMBG
FOR NOW BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20
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