206
FXUS63 KABR 290230 AAB
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
930 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASED CHANCES (50-70%) FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY WITH
THE HIGHER MOISTURE POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
- COOLER (BELOW NORMAL) TEMPERATURES IN STORE BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE 60S, LOWS IN THE 40S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 915 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
BEEN WATCHING AND TRACKING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SINCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE JAMES VALLEY
AND POINTS WEST INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS OF SD. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
HASN'T BEEN LONG LIVED, ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF CELLS HAVE HELD
TOGETHER FOR A WHILE. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING
THROUGH WESTERN SD THIS EVENING AND ARE THE SHIFTING EAST TOWARD
OUR FORECAST AREA. ADDED POPS INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY, MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY. FOG IS
MORE OF A SECONDARY CONCERN OVERNIGHT. STILL CAN'T RULE OUT PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPING IN SOME AREAS, ESPECIALLY FROM THE JAMES VALLEY
AND POINTS EAST. ALTHOUGH, THICKER MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
IS SHIFTING EAST INTO OUR AREA AND MAY PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD
FOG DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITIES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
AFTERNOON CUMULUS HAS FORMED IN SPITE OF THE MID LEVEL DRY AIR
LAYER. STILL EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS TO REMAIN OUTSIDE THE CWA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WE LOSE THAT DRY LAYER AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THAT
POINT, BETWEEN SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SFC LOW MOVING OFF THE
ROCKIES, CENTRAL SD WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
FARTHER EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AMPLIFIED BY A 700 AND 500 MB LOW
ACROSS NORTHERN SD THAT SINKS SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE BIG QUESTION MARK IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG FRIDAY MORNING. THERE
IS STILL AMPLE LLM, BUT THE EASTERN EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER DIFFERS
BETWEEN MODELS. SO, PRETTY CONFIDENT THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY DENSE
FOG SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA, BUT LESS CONFIDENT ABOUT WHERE IT WILL
DEVELOP.
ONLY OTHER FORECAST NOTE IN THE EXTENDED IS THE ANTICIPATED COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPS BY MID WEEK. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE
60S TO LOWER 70S, ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
STILL DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT LOCATIONS FOR ANY FOG OR STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE ISN'T ALL THAT EXCITED
ABOUT IS FORMATION, AT LEAST AT ANY OF THE 4 TERMINALS. A WAIT
AND SEE APPROACH AND A CONTINUED WATCH OF TRENDS THROUGH THIS
EVENING IS THE PATH WE'LL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW. A FEW SCATTERED
SHRAS/TSRAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN THE JAMES
VALLEY. INCLUDED MENTION OF VCTS AT KABR THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN FLIRTING WITH THE AREA FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND BY MID TO LATE
EVENING. A BETTER CHANCE FOR TSRA'S MOVING INTO CENTRAL SD BY
MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. INCLUDED PROB30 GROUPS FOR
THIS AT KPIR/KATY. OTHERWISE, ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS FOR A MAJORITY OF THIS TAF CYCLE.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...VIPOND
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...VIPOND
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