589
FXUS63 KABR 290520 AAC
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1220 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASED CHANCES (50-70%) FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY WITH
THE HIGHER MOISTURE POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
- COOLER (BELOW NORMAL) TEMPERATURES IN STORE BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE 60S, LOWS IN THE 40S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE 06Z
TAF ISSUANCE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 915 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
BEEN WATCHING AND TRACKING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SINCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE JAMES VALLEY
AND POINTS WEST INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS OF SD. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
HASN'T BEEN LONG LIVED, ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF CELLS HAVE HELD
TOGETHER FOR A WHILE. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING
THROUGH WESTERN SD THIS EVENING AND ARE THE SHIFTING EAST TOWARD
OUR FORECAST AREA. ADDED POPS INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY, MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY. FOG IS
MORE OF A SECONDARY CONCERN OVERNIGHT. STILL CAN'T RULE OUT PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPING IN SOME AREAS, ESPECIALLY FROM THE JAMES VALLEY
AND POINTS EAST. ALTHOUGH, THICKER MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
IS SHIFTING EAST INTO OUR AREA AND MAY PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD
FOG DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITIES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
AFTERNOON CUMULUS HAS FORMED IN SPITE OF THE MID LEVEL DRY AIR
LAYER. STILL EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS TO REMAIN OUTSIDE THE CWA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WE LOSE THAT DRY LAYER AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THAT
POINT, BETWEEN SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SFC LOW MOVING OFF THE
ROCKIES, CENTRAL SD WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
FARTHER EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AMPLIFIED BY A 700 AND 500 MB LOW
ACROSS NORTHERN SD THAT SINKS SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE BIG QUESTION MARK IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG FRIDAY MORNING. THERE
IS STILL AMPLE LLM, BUT THE EASTERN EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER DIFFERS
BETWEEN MODELS. SO, PRETTY CONFIDENT THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY DENSE
FOG SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA, BUT LESS CONFIDENT ABOUT WHERE IT WILL
DEVELOP.
ONLY OTHER FORECAST NOTE IN THE EXTENDED IS THE ANTICIPATED COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPS BY MID WEEK. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE
60S TO LOWER 70S, ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL GENERALLY FOR THE MOST PART
THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS WILL BE DURING PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AT KPIR/KMBG
TERMINALS. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THESE 2 TAF SITES.
CONTINUED TO LEAVE OUT MENTION OF ANY FOG OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE STILL
REMAINS NOT SO BULLISH ON FOG DEVELOPMENT IN ANY ON SPOT, AT LEAST
NOT OVER ANY OF THE TERMINALS, BUT WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS
INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...BC
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...VIPOND
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