945
FXUS63 KABR 091723 AAA
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1223 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY ELEVATED SMOKE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SOME OF
THIS SMOKE WILL NEAR THE SURFACE WITH VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE
MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER IN THE MORNING.
- MORNING SMOKE CONTINUES, MOST DENSE BETWEEN IPSWICH AND
ABERDEEN.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1037 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR FOG REMAINS UNTIL 17Z,
HIGHLIGHTING MUCH OF EASTERN SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF FOG AT AROUND 1/4 MILE AT TIMES. VISIBILITY AT ABR AS
OF 1535Z HAS IMPROVED TO 3/4 MILE.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COUPLED WITH SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO EXIT BY AFTERNOON, THOUGH PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO
TAPER OFF SOONER THAN THAT. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN TO
THE PLAINS.
ELEVATED WILDFIRE SMOKE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY, BUT NEAR
SURFACE SMOKE IN PARTS OF CENTRAL SD SHOULD SINK SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BOTH TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH WARMEST HIGHS FROM PIERRE SOUTH. WINDS INCREASE OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH WEST RIVER
AS LEE SIDE TROUGHING SETS UP ALONG THE ROCKIES. BEFORE WINDS
INCREASE, THOUGH, CAN'T RULE OUT SOME MORNING FOG IN THE EAST WITH
THE LATENT LLM HANGING AROUND.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
WEDNESDAY EVENING THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER OUR AREA
AND THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING IN FROM THE WEST, ALTHOUGH NOW IT IS MORE
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING WHICH IS A LITTLE
LATER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE EC AND CANADIAN STILL HAVE
SIMILAR OUTCOMES UP UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, AND THE GFS IS STILL
HOLDING ONTO THE IDEA OF THE LOW STAYING OFF TO OUR WEST OVER MT.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THE CANADIAN STARTS TO AGREE MORE WITH THE GFS AND
MOVES THE LOW NORTHWEST AND INTO MT WHEREAS THE EC KEEPS THE LOW
MOVING EAST TO SOUTHEAST. FOLLOWING THIS, THE EC MOVES INTO AN OMEGA
BLOCK PATTERN AND THE CANADIAN AND GFS HAVE US IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WITH A LOW OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST.
THE MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT LOOKS TO START FRIDAY EVENING AHEAD OF
THE LOW, MAINLY WEST RIVER. 40-60% POPS START TO SPREAD EAST DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AND THEN DECREASE TO AROUND 20-30% SUNDAY BEFORE
DYING OFF OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. NBM 24 HOUR QPF
ENDING SUNDAY MORNING HAS CHANCES OF MORE THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH
AT 30-60% MAINLY WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER, LESS EAST OF THE JAMES.
ELEVATED SMOKE LOOKS TO CONTINUE AT LEAST OVER NORTHEASTERN SD AT
LEAVE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN 5-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH FRIDAY AS THE WARMEST DAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
IFR CEILINGS KATY AND KABR WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND FOR A LITTLE BIT
LONGER, PROBABLY AN HOUR OR SO, BEFORE DISSIPATING. THEN VFR
CEILINGS WILL STAY OVER THE TERMINALS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT, WHEN MORE
FOG IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL MAINLY AFFECT KATY AND DROP
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AT TIMES TO IFR AND LIFR CATEGORIES.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...12
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...12
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