868
FXUS63 KABR 101721 AAC
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1221 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY ELEVATED SMOKE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, WHILE
SLOWLY IMPROVING LATE TODAY.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL SD LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1046 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
HAVE ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO GO AHEAD AND EXPIRE AT 11AM
CDT AS WEBCAMS/OBS AROUND THE AREA SHOW VISIBILITIES IMPROVING
ABOVE CRITERIA. SATELLITE CONTINUES TO INDICATE ONGOING PATCHY
FOG OVER THE AREA THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BURN OFF THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING. OTHERWISE, A BLEND OF CLOUDS AND SUN EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY. HRRR SMOKE MODEL CONTINUES TO INDICATE SMOKE
ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE CWA TODAY WITH THIS SMOKE LINGERING FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS EVENING, AND JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AND EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OUT OF THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
SATELLITE SHOWS LOW STRATUS AND FOG SPREADING OVER THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING. ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AND CORSON COUNTY BASED ON SATELLITE
AND WEBCAMS. SOME AREAS ARE ALREADY SOCKED IN WITH VERY LOW
VISIBILITY.
SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACROSS CENTRAL
SD. THE GOOD MIXING UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE WILL HELP PUSH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO
NORMS TODAY AND THURSDAY. ACROSS THE EAST, MORE SEASONABLE HIGHS ARE
FORECAST. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT ON A 30 KT LLJ, BUT HI-RES MODELS ARE LESS SUPPORTIVE. SO,
OTHER THAN IN NORTH CENTRAL SD, POPS REMAIN BELOW A MENTION EVEN IF
NON-ZERO.
THE PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR DURING THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. HOWEVER,
FOG SHOULD BE LESS PREVALENT DUE TO THE BREEZIER WINDS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
THURSDAY EVENING, THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS PASSED AND
THE AREA IS IN SOUTHWESTERN FLOW. THE EC AND GFS SHOW A SHORTWAVE
MOVE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO A BIT MORE AGREEMENT AS TO THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FOR SUNDAY. THE CANADIAN, EC, AND GFS ALL SHOW A
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVE INTO THE REGION. THE AXIS DOESN'T
REALLY EVER CROSS THE REGION SO OUR UPPER LEVEL WINDS GENERALLY STAY
OUT OF THE SOUTH. ONCE THE LOW/TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH, OUR
UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY. WEDNESDAY, THE EC SHOWS A
LOW OVER WESTERN SD WHILE THE CANADIAN AND GFS SHOW A LOW OVER THE
WESTERN ROCKIES. THESE LOWS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT OVER NORTH CENTRAL SD. THURSDAY NIGHT, THERE
IS AROUND A 20% CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL
SD. STARTING FRIDAY EVENING, 40-70% POPS MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST AND SLOWLY SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. THESE
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES DIMINISH TO 30-40% FOR SUNDAY AND FINALLY DIE
OFF LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE START OF
THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE DRY BEFORE 20-40% CHANCES RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF A POSSIBLE INCOMING LOW. 24 HR QPF FROM THE NBM SHOWS 30-
60% CHANCES OF MORE THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER, HIGHEST CHANCES WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. FRIDAY STILL
LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, BUT THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL STILL BE 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TOMORROW
AT THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL PICK UP AT KPIR AND KMBG THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW, WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KTS. THE WINDS WILL
PICK UP AT KABR AND KATY MID MORNING TOMORROW.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...12
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...12
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