788
FXUS63 KABR 101922
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
222 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL SD LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
AS OF 2PM, SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOTED ON
SATELLITE OVER THE CWA, AS WE ARE NORTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
FROM SOUTHWESTERN SD AND EASTWARD ALONG THE SD/NE BORDER INTO IOWA.
TEMPS ARE RANGING IN THE 70S TO THE LOWER 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 60S WITH THE LATEST HRRR SMOKE MODEL STILL INDICATING SMOKE
ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE CWA, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
SD WHERE IT HAS CLEARED OUT. LATER ON TONIGHT THE RAP INDICATES VERY
WEAK SHORTWAVE PULSES COULD COMBINE WITH A 30KT LOW LEVEL JET (ALONG
AND EAST OF THE LEE LOW) POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN HALF
OF THE DAKOTAS. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO FIRE UP SOME ISOLATED
ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS MUCAPE
WILL BE UP TO 1300 J/KM PER HREF IN THIS AREA. HOWEVER, HRW NSSL AND
FV3 ARE THE ONLY CAMS THAT SEEM TO INDICATE THIS POSSIBILITY OF
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN ~04-06Z OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL SD. THE OTHER CAMS ARE LESS THAN IMPRESSED. LATEST NBM KEEPS
POPS UNDER 10% SO DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE I JUST LEFT THE GRIDS AS IS.
IF WE DO GET DEVELOPMENT THEN POPS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED.
OTHERWISE, SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CONUS AS THE REGION REMAINS
UNDER A RIDGE THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST
THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY AS THE LARGE CUTOFF MID LEVEL
LOW/TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH SLIGHTLY EAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WHICH LIES UNDER A BROADER POLAR JET RIDGE. WINDS AT THIS TIME ALOFT
WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL HELP GET RID OF THE SMOKE WE HAVE
BEEN DEALING WITH. WITHIN THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE PVA SIDE OF THE
TROUGH, SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE IN WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
OVER CENTRAL SD THURSDAY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE, THE CWA WILL BE
SANDWICHED BETWEEN A HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, OVER NORTHEASTERN
ONTARIO, AND A LEE LOW TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. THE STEEPENED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS UP
TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT, OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST, BETWEEN 5 TO 15 MPH,
HIGHEST OVER CENTRAL SD WITH PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL SD POSSIBLY
GUSTING TO 30 MPH WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STEEPER (CLOSER TO
THE LOW). SO THIS WILL ALLEVIATE ANY FOG FROM DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OUR FAR EASTERN CWA WHERE THE WINDS COULD BE
LIGHT ENOUGH FOR PATCHY FOG TO FORM. AS OF NOW, CONSSHORT INDICATES
THE BETTER FOG POTENTIAL FURTHER INTO MN. WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY WITH THIS STEEPER PRESSURE GRADIENT
(AND ONGOING LLJ) SETUP WITH GUSTS OF 20-30KTS BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, HIGHEST OVER CENTRAL SD.
BY THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, ENSEMBLES OVERALL AGREE
ON THE CENTER OF THE LOW OVER MT/ND/SD BORDER WITH GEFS INDICTING A
BIT OF A DEEPER LOW (1004MB) COMPARED TO ENS (1007MB) WITH MUCH OF
NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTH CENTRAL SD IN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN THE
WARM AND COLD FRONT AND DOWNWIND OF THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW OVER WESTERN SD. THESE MODELS KEEP
MOST OF THE ONGOING PRECIP ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
THE LOW OVER ND/MT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CAMS REALLY ONLY
SHOW SPOTTY ACTIVITY (RAIN MORE THAN ANYTHING) OVER CENTRAL SD
THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. NBM DID NOT HAVE MUCH
IN TERMS OF POPS SO I DID ADD IN A 15-20% CHANCE OVER CENTRAL SD
BETWEEN 18Z-06Z. WE WILL BE DEALING WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT (+11 TO
+12C OVER CENTRAL SD PER HREF BETWEEN 00-12Z FRIDAY)SO THIS IS WHY
THE CAMS/NBM ARE NOT OVERLY EXCITED AND REALLY ONLY SHOWING SPOTTY
ACTIVITY AT MOST AS WE MAY BE TOO CAPPED FOR ANYTHING REAL ORGANIZED
CONVECTION WISE. NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW WE HAVE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES (INVERTED V SOUNDING) HOWEVER CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS SEEN
JUST ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER IN THIS WARMER LAYER ALOFT OVER CENTRAL
SD. SO IF WE CAN GET ANYTHING TO FORM (IT WOULD HAVE TO BE ELEVATED
AT OR ABOVE 650MB), GUSTY DOWNDRAFT WINDS (60 MPH) WOULD BE THE MAIN
CONCERN AND POSSIBLY QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SO THE SEVERE THREAT IS VERY
CONDITIONAL WITH SPC HIGHLIGHTING A MARGINAL RISK FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL SD THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
THERE IS A MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE/SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES OVER SD
FRIDAY AND THOUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PUSH THE RIDGE TO THE EAST
OVER FAR EASTERN SD AND MN. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER SD, MODELS
MOVE SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN SD STARTING
FRIDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY. CLUSTERS ARE SHOWING A 30 TO 55 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR MORE THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN FALLING BY SUNDAY EVENING
WEST OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU, WITH THE HIGHEST PERCENTAGE OVER NORTH
CENTRAL SD. TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S, EXCEPT
FOR FRIDAY, WHICH WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL, WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO UPPER 80S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TOMORROW
AT THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL PICK UP AT KPIR AND KMBG THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW, WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KTS. THE WINDS WILL
PICK UP AT KABR AND KATY MID MORNING TOMORROW.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MMM
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...12
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