892
FXUS63 KABR 110945
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
445 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL SD THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
ADDITIONAL STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
HI-RES MODELS ARE NOT IMPRESSED BY THE MARGINAL RISK IN PLACE TODAY
AND FRIDAY, MAINLY FOR NORTH CENTRAL SD. SOUTHERLY FLOW BELOW UPPER
RIDGING WILL HELP DRAW IN SOME MOISTURE, ENHANCING CAPE. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS EVENING. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL ADD SOME LIFT. THE LOW MEANDERS OVER WESTERN SD ON
FRIDAY, NOSING INTO CENTRAL SD BY LATE AFTERNOON. BULK SHEAR REMAINS
MARGINAL AT 25 TO 30 KTS. THERE'S SOME WEAK CAPPING WITH H7 TEMPS OF
+12C, BUT UNTIL THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES LEAN
FARTHER EAST ON FRIDAY, FORCING IS MINIMAL. THIS MAY BE WHY MOST HI-
RES AND ENSEMBLES ARE STRUGGLING TO PLACE ANY POPS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH
TODAY. THE GOOD MIXING UNDER THE RIDGE WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S TODAY AND FRIDAY FROM THE JAMES VALLEY WEST,
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID SEPTEMBER.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
FRIDAY EVENING, THE AREA IS UNDER A SOUTHWESTERN UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN WITH A TROUGH SITTING OFF TO OUR WEST ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE ROCKIES. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AND LOOKS
TO BE ACROSS THE AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY MONDAY. THERE IS FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG DETERMINISTIC MODELS OF THIS OUTCOME. THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMES IN DURING THE MID WEEK. THERE IS LESS
AGREEMENT HERE THAN THE WEEKEND TROUGH. THE EC SHOWS A LOW TRACKING
ACROSS ND TUESDAY WHILE THE CANADIAN BRINGS IT ACROSS ND TUESDAY
EVENING AND THE GFS BRINGS A MUCH WEAKER LOW ACROSS SD ON THURSDAY.
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES START LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
AS THAT WEEKEND TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE IN. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1
OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL SD. THE MAIN THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS LOOKS TO BE WIND GUSTS OF 60+ MPH, ALTHOUGH THERE
IS A CHANCE OF SOME HAIL AN INCH IN DIAMETER. 40-60% POPS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY STAYING MAINLY WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. 40-
50% POPS SPREAD EAST SUNDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF POPS MOVES IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND THE NBM KEEPS CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE MODELS ON THAT MID-WEEK LOW.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD GET CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR AS WE MOVE INTO MID-WEEK. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
RELATIVELY CALM WHICH COULD LEAD TO SEVERAL DAYS OF MORNING FOG.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR STORMS NEAR THE KPIR/KMBG TERMINALS
AROUND 00Z, TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE GOING ROUND OF TAFS.
OTHERWISE EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND
COMPONENT.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...07
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