134
FXUS63 KABR 130450
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1150 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) OF SEVERE WEATHER
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY, AS WELL AS NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA ON SUNDAY. HAIL
UP TO AN INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH ARE THE
PRIMARY THREATS.
- MARGINAL AND SLIGHT RISKS FOR EXCESSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL ARE IN
PLACE OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS.
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS A CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
TUESDAY, BEFORE RETURNING TO SEASONAL VALUES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
AT 2 PM CDT, SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY AND TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING
THROUGH THE 80S, EXCEPT OVER FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA, WHERE CLOUD-COVER AND ONGOING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE 60S AND
70S. WINDS ARE VARIABLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, GENERALLY AROUND 5
TO 15 MPH. EARLIER CONVECTION THAT INITIATED FROM SOUTH OF REDFIELD
TO SOUTHWEST OF WATERTOWN HAS EVOLVED/MOVED OVER INTO THE FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. OCCASIONALLY, HAIL POTENTIALLY
UP TO DIME/NICKEL HAS APPEARED IN RADAR INTERROGATION. AND, POCKETS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM TRAINING/SLOW MOVING STORMS HAS BEEN OBSERVED.
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REGION
GRADUALLY GIVES WAY TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROF/CLOSED LOW SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE/INVERTED SURFACE
TROFFING WILL ANCHOR ITSELF OVER THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN CWA. WITH
AMPLE SURFACE TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND THROUGH SUNDAY, THE
POTENTIAL FOR EFFICIENT/HEAVY RAIN-PRODUCING (SOUTH-TO-
NORTH-MOVING) THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST.
STARTING TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, THE FIRST INSTALLMENT OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES (40-80%) SHOWS UP. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AROUND
25-35KTS, AND INSTABILITY IS PROGGED AT OR ABOVE 2000J/KG CAPE OVER
THE WESTERN THIRD (BASICALLY THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD) OF
FORECAST ZONES. A MARGINAL RISK (1 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES IN CASE ANY MULTI-
CELLULAR TO SUPERCELLULAR CONVECTION CAN PRODUCE HAIL UP TO AN INCH
IN DIAMETER OR WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. HI-RES ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
DEPICTS THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING AND 7 PM
CDT SATURDAY. THERE IS A MARGINAL/SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE HEAVY
RAINFALL IN PLACE ACROSS CORSON/DEWEY COUNTIES TONIGHT.
A SIMILAR SET UP IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA (PERHAPS 50-100 MILES
FURTHER EAST) SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING,
INCLUDING A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND A MARGINAL
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
AS THE BULK OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY, THE MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXPANDS OVER INTO
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA, WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE HEAVY
RAINFALL COVERING THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY REGION, WESTWARD.
THE REMAINDER OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST LOOKS SIMILAR TO WHAT IT WAS 24
HOURS AGO. KEEPING IN MIND, THE RELATIVE BLOCKY PATTERN THAT WILL BE
HAPPENING ACROSS THE LOWER 48 AND SOUTHERN CANADA "BENEATH" A
BROADER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE, SPANNING COAST TO COAST, OVER
NORTHERN CANADA, THERE IS MUCH VARIABILITY POTENTIAL OUT BEYOND DAY
4 RIGHT NOW. THAT SAID, STILL SEEING A SYSTEM IN THE MODELS MOVING
FROM THE PAC NW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, WHILE
THE UPPER RIDGE NOW SHIFTED TO OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AMPLIFIES. WITH THIS RIDGE "BLOCKING" THE WAY, UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHINESS MAY BE STICKING AROUND OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A LESS THAN STABLE
ENVIRONMENT, WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXPECTED TO PERSIST PAST
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
BASED OFF DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE,
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UP TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH NEXT MONDAY, BEFORE 850HPA THERMAL PROGS RATCHET DOWN TO
SOMETHING CLOSER TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS. THERE ARE STORMS WEST RIVER HEADED TOWARDS THE
KPIR/KMBG TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. STORM CHANCES DIMINISH IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ONLY TO RE-DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON. COULD BE SOME
MVFR CIGS OVER TOWARDS KATY, AND STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
WHETHER FOG WILL MAKE IT INTO THE KATY TERMINAL TOWARDS SUNRISE SO
AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP IT OUT OF THE TAFS.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...07
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