369
FXUS63 KABR 131532 AAB
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1032 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) OF SEVERE WEATHER
OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, BEFORE
EXPANDING TO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HAIL UP TO AN INCH IN DIAMETER AND
WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH
TONIGHT, AND OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA (MAINLY WEST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER) SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE RAIN FALLING OVER THE SAME LOCATION/TRAINING STORMS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1027 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
CONTINUING TO SEE THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SD
THIS MORNING, PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES OVER THE SAME
AREAS. ELSEWHERE, GENERAL SHOWERS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE
CWA AND HAD EARLIER THIS MORNING EXPANDED POPS TO BETTER MATCH
RADAR TRENDS. FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA STILL REMAINS MAINLY
AROUND THE SUMMIT REGION AND HAVE MENTION OF THIS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. SPS WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS MORNING TO
HIGHLIGHT DENSE FOG. EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS A GOOD PORTION
OF THE CWA, BUT THERE SHOULD BE GRADUAL EROSION THROUGH THE DAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE IN JEOPARDY FOR SOME LOCATIONS (DUE TO
LINGERING CLOUD COVER) AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
WARM, MUGGY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES AT
08Z IN THE 60S, WITH LOW 70S SOUTH OF PIR. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG
REMAIN OVER AND EAST OF THE SISSETON HILLS/PRAIRIE COTEAU THIS
MORNING. AT 09Z THE VISIBILITY AT ATY WAS LESS THAN 2 MILES, WITH
AREA WEBCAMS SHOWING LOWER VISIBILITY NORTH AND EAST.
THE CURRENT SURFACE WEATHER MAP SHOWS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE SOUTH CENTRAL SD/NORTH CENTRAL NE BORDER NEAR VTN. THERE IS A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY, AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. IF STRONG
STORMS DEVELOP, THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL UP TO AROUND AN INCH IN DIAMETER.
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE NORTH OF THE LOW MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE
FORM MISSION RIDGE TO ONIDA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA
OF PRECIPITATION AS IT MOVES OVER SOME LOCATIONS THAT ALREADY
RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN IN EXCESS OF 3" ACROSS WESTERN CORSON COUNTY.
THE HRRR HAS DONE A FAIRLY GOOD JOB THIS MORNING WITH THE AREAL
COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS, AND WILL BE INTEGRATED INTO THE
ONGOING FORECAST. THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR THE MORE STEADY
PRECIPITATION TO SHIFT INTO ND BY DAYBREAK, WITH MORE SPOTTY SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS LINGERING OVER CENTRAL SD THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS
TODAY. AGAIN, THE FOCUS FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL SD, AND MAINLY CORSON AND DEWEY COUNTIES
WHICH ARE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FORECAST FOR
TODAY/TONIGHT.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL SLIDE A BIT EAST, MAINLY AROUND REDFIELD AND
SOUTH BY 03Z SUNDAY AND DRIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT AS A REINFORCING LOW
OVER SOUTHWESTERN NE MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW STORMS LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WILL EVOLVE, WITH THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO BEING STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS AGAIN OVER CENTRAL SD AND GENERALLY WEST OF
THE MO RIVER. TIMING/LOCATION/INTENSITY OF THESE STORMS VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY BUT THERE ARE SOME COMMON THEMES. BY 03Z SUNDAY THE
MAIN AREA OF CONCERN LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF PIR BEFORE EXPANDING AND
SPREADING NORTH AGAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR
EMBEDDED STRONGER STORMS AND TRAINING OF STORMS THAT COULD LEAD TO
FLOODING TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE THREAT OVER CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY WILL EXPAND TO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
AND WESTERN MN SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
BY 12Z MONDAY THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER FAR NORTHERN SD, BUT
MAINLY ACROSS ND, WITH A TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS EASTERN SD THROUGH
AT LEAST 00Z WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE SOME SMALL DIFFERENCES ON THE
TIMING OF THE EASTERN EXIT OF THE TROUGH. THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE
LOWER/NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. AFTER MAINLY DRY WEATHER LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND MONDAY NIGHT, A 40-50% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN
FOR LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS CONTINUE AT ATY WITH MVFR TO VFR FOG THROUGH
AROUND 15Z. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL
SD. THE STORMS SOUTH OF MBG HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS
OF 30-40KTS. HAVE INCREASED WINDS AT MBG. TIMING OF ADDITIONAL
STORMS REMAINS DIFFICULT OVER CENTRAL SD, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
AGAIN TONIGHT WHEN -SHRA OR PROB30 THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
INCLUDED.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...TMT
DISCUSSION...06
AVIATION...06
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