503
FXUS63 KABR 132019
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
319 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MARGINAL RISK (THREAT LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL SD THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. HAIL AROUND QUARTER SIZE,
WINDS TO 60 MPH, AND HEAVY RAIN ARE THE MAIN THREATS.
- FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SD INTO WEST CENTRAL MN. VISIBILITY MAY
BE REDUCED TO BELOW ONE-HALF MILE AT TIMES.
- MARGINAL RISK (THREAT LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. SIMILAR THREATS AS TONIGHT,
ALTHOUGH A VERY LOW END (2%) TORNADO THREAT EXISTS OVER THE
REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN, WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. BROAD/WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SITS OVER EASTERN
SD WHILE THE FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TRIES TO EXIT NORTHWARD
OUT OF SD AND INTO SOUTHERN ND. STILL QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS
ACROSS CENTRAL SD, THUS LIMITING THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION
SOMEWHAT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST CENTRAL SD MAY BE ONE OF THE
LAST LOCATIONS TO SEE A DECREASE IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CAMS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ANY
REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION. HREF COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY (>40 DBZ) ENSEMBLE
PAINTBALL OUTPUT SHOWS MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
CENTRAL SD, WHICH IS WHERE RAINFALL CHANCES ARE HIGHEST. IT ALSO
APPEARS FOG/LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN SD INTO
WEST CENTRAL MN. HAVE INSERTED MENTION OF THIS INTO THE FORECAST AS
WELL.
ON SUNDAY, LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING CONTINUED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH DEVELOPMENT A BIT FURTHER EAST INTO THE CWA
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING MORNING CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN, SO WILL
HAVE TO SEE HOW THE LOWER CLOUDS ERODE AND WHERE POCKETS OF
INSTABILITY DEVELOP. GENERALLY TALL/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES IN
SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH 6-7 C/KM LAPSE RATES MAY BRING WEAK/MODERATE
UPDRAFTS WITH ANY CELLS THAT DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ENOUGH SHEAR
SEEMS TO BE PRESENT AS WELL TO PERHAPS BRING A LOW END SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN THE FACT THE
SURFACE LOW WILL BE RIGHT OVER SD, WHICH COULD BE IMPINGING ON THE
LOW-LEVEL JET.
UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE AT LEAST INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL LARGER SCALE
MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AMONGST THE GEFS/GEPS/ENS INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
INHERITED POP GRIDS GENERALLY SHOW PRECIP CHANCES RANGING FROM 30-
50% BY TUESDAY NIGHT ALREADY AS MONDAY MAY SEE A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN
SYSTEMS. DON'T REALLY SEE ANY COLD AIR INTRUSIONS THROUGH THE 7-DAY
FORECAST, SO THREATS FOR A FROST/FREEZE LOOK TO HOLD OFF FOR A
LITTLE WHILE YET.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION INTO MID
AFTERNOON BEFORE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO VFR. LOWER
CIGS ARE FORECAST AGAIN OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION, BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON PLACEMENT AND AREAL EXTENT. SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ARE
BEST OVER CENTRAL SD (KPIR/KMBG) DURING THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
POTENTIAL MVFR/IFR VSBY IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...TMT
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