701
FXUS63 KABR 152031
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
331 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AGAIN TONIGHT/TUESDAY (20-30%), WITH
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL CONFINED TO MARGINAL RISK (THREAT LEVEL 1
OF 5) ACROSS SOUTHERN SD TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
- HIGHER CHANCES (60-70%) FOR RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
PERHAPS EVENING LINGERING THROUGH FRIDAY. 1 TO 2+ INCHES OF
RAINFALL POSSIBLE (20-40% CHANCE FOR 2"+).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA ON TUESDAY, ORIENTING ITSELF
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AREA BY 12Z. A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE REGION, WITH LIMITED CHANCES
(~20-30%) FOR SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL SD TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED (MUCAPE <1000 J/KG) OVERNIGHT, SO
DON'T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, THERE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD ALONG THE FRONT AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES. TO SOME EXTENT PERHAPS FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO
PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL SD. ALTHOUGH, LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO INCREASE MORE MEANINGFUL BY EVENING/OVERNIGHT,
SO PERHAPS BETTER COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION BY THEN. COVERAGE LOOKS
RATHER LIMITED PRIOR TO 00Z WEDNESDAY.
A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STILL LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY/FRIDAY. INHERITED POPS
FEATURE HIGHEST RAINFALL CHANCES OF 60-70% ACROSS THE CWA FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GEFS/GEPS/ENS ALL SHOW THE GENERAL
PATTERN OF THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING OVER THE SIOUX
FALLS/OMAHA REGION BY 18Z FRIDAY, SO STILL OVERHEAD WITH CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
ENDING AT 12Z SATURDAY, THE 72-HR PROBABILITY OF TOTAL PRECIP OVER 1
INCH IS AROUND 45-65% ACROSS THE CWA, WITH THE HIGHEST PERCENTAGE IN
THE WATERTOWN REGION. THERE'S EVEN SOME 20-40% PROBABILITIES SHOWING
UP WHEN THE PRECIP AMOUNT IS RAISED TO 2 INCHES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS 06-18Z
TUESDAY AT KMBG AND KPIR. CONFIDENCE IS LOW, AND THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IS ONLY AROUND 15%. AS A RESULT, NO MENTION OF
SHOWERS OR STORMS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE KMBG OR KPIR TAFS AT
THIS TIME.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...TMT
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