826
FXUS63 KABR 160505
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1205 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AGAIN TONIGHT/TUESDAY (20-30%), WITH
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL CONFINED TO MARGINAL RISK (THREAT LEVEL 1
OF 5) ACROSS SOUTHERN SD TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
- HIGHER CHANCES (60-70%) FOR RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
PERHAPS EVENING LINGERING THROUGH FRIDAY. 1 TO 2+ INCHES OF
RAINFALL POSSIBLE (20-40% CHANCE FOR 2"+).
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 838 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW CONVECTION MAINLY LIMITED TO FAR WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA/BLACK HILLS REGION, HOWEVER WE DO HAVE A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS ACROSS CORSON COUNTY IN OUR AREA. THE CAMS MOST
REPRESENTATIVE OF CURRENT RADAR REFLECTIVITY (HRRR/RAP/ARW)
DEPICT THESE VERY ISOLATED STORMS MAKING AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT. IT DOESN'T APPEAR THAT A STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE PRESENT TO HELP DEVELOP/MAINTAIN STORMS IN
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEREFORE ONLY MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE FORECAST POPS TO ADJUST TIMING, BUT DID NOT INCREASE
CHANCES TO MORE THAN SLIGHT. SIMILAR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO
CLOUD COVER. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES MADE WITH THE PACKAGE UPDATE
THIS EVENING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
SEE THE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA ON TUESDAY, ORIENTING ITSELF
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AREA BY 12Z. A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE REGION, WITH LIMITED CHANCES
(~20-30%) FOR SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL SD TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED (MUCAPE <1000 J/KG) OVERNIGHT, SO
DON'T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, THERE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD ALONG THE FRONT AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES. TO SOME EXTENT PERHAPS FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO
PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL SD. ALTHOUGH, LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO INCREASE MORE MEANINGFUL BY EVENING/OVERNIGHT,
SO PERHAPS BETTER COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION BY THEN. COVERAGE LOOKS
RATHER LIMITED PRIOR TO 00Z WEDNESDAY.
A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STILL LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY/FRIDAY. INHERITED POPS
FEATURE HIGHEST RAINFALL CHANCES OF 60-70% ACROSS THE CWA FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GEFS/GEPS/ENS ALL SHOW THE GENERAL
PATTERN OF THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING OVER THE SIOUX
FALLS/OMAHA REGION BY 18Z FRIDAY, SO STILL OVERHEAD WITH CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
ENDING AT 12Z SATURDAY, THE 72-HR PROBABILITY OF TOTAL PRECIP OVER 1
INCH IS AROUND 45-65% ACROSS THE CWA, WITH THE HIGHEST PERCENTAGE IN
THE WATERTOWN REGION. THERE'S EVEN SOME 20-40% PROBABILITIES SHOWING
UP WHEN THE PRECIP AMOUNT IS RAISED TO 2 INCHES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAY IMPACT THE KPIR/KMBG
TAF SITES DURING THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE TAF FORECAST. THE
BIGGEST CONCERN WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS NEAR A TAF SITE WILL BE
ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS.
OTHERWISE, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL VERY SLOWLY SLIDE FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL RESPOND BY BECOMING LIGHT AND
THEN SWITCHING TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION. WINDS HAVE ALREADY
SWITCHED AT KMBG. KPIR/KABR WILL FOLLOW SUITE CLOSER TO 12-15Z AND
KATY WILL BE LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...SERR
DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...SERR
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