898
FXUS63 KABR 160923
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
423 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK, OR THREAT LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5, OF SEVERE
WEATHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING NEAR AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM KADOKA TO HIGHMORE, REDFIELD, AND SISSETON. THE MAIN
CONCERNS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE WINDS TO AROUND 60 MPH OR
HAIL AROUND THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.
- A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, WITH MOST OF THE RAIN SLOWLY COMING TO AN END FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. MODERATE RAIN OVER THE SAME AREA COULD CREATE FLOODING
ISSUES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
THE EARLY MORNING SURFACE WEATHER MAP SHOWED A 1014MB LOW CENTERED
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA WITH A DEEPER 1010MB LOW OVER EASTERN CO .
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WERE SET UP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW (OVER
CENTRAL SD), WITH WINDS STILL OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
EASTERN SD AND WESTERN MN. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED
NEAR THE MO RIVER AROUND 06Z HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE, WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING FROM EUREKA THROUGH
GETTYSBURG AND LYMAN COUNTY AS OF 840Z. AS THE SHOWERS CONTINUE EAST
THEY WILL GET INTO LESS FAVORABLE AIR. HOWEVER, THERE ARE ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NORTHERN NE AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD THAT WILL
RESULT IN AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR
OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH 12Z.
THE EASTERN CO LOW WILL TRACK EAST, WITH A TROUGH SET UP FROM
EASTERN SD THROUGH WESTERN KS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING FOR A
CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE TO SURGE NORTH. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER AHEAD OF THE LOW, FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHEASTERN SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN. THIS WILL BE FOR LATE
AFTERNOON, MAINLY AFTER 22Z WITH PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD
THAT WILL BE SHIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. THE
NCAR MEDIUM-RANGE REAL-TIME CONVECTIVE HAZARD FORECASTS HAVE
HIGHLIGHTED THIS AREA AS A CONCERN FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. STILL,
THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR NORTHEAST THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE IT THIS EVENING. EVEN ONE OF THE
MOST ROBUST CAMS, THE NAM NEST KEEPS CONVECTION SOUTH OF US HIGHWAY
212 AND MOSTLY SOUTH OF US HIGHWAY 14. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MORE STEADY RAIN, AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, CAN BE EXPECTED
BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IS WHEN OUR CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
INCREASES TO 60-80%. WHILE THERE WILL BE BREAKS FROM THE RAIN, THE
OFF AND ON PRECIPITATION MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES.
THERE IS A 40-70 PERCENT CHANCE OF GETTING AN INCH OF RAIN BY
FRIDAY, AND AROUND A 20-40 PERCENT OF GETTING OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN.
AT THIS TIME, THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS/HIGHEST CHANCES OF OVER 1 OR 2" IS
EXPECTED OVER NORTHEASTERN SD AND WESTERN MN. WE REMAIN IN A WPC
MARGINAL RISK AREA OF AT LEAST 5% RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE WITHIN 25 MILES OF A POINT OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT FROM OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY TO
OUR NORTH LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. FRIDAY WILL BE OUR TRANSITION
DAY, WITH THE MORE STEADY RAIN COMING TO AN END AS DRIER AIR TAKES
HOLD. EXPECT DRY WEATHER OVER CENTRAL SD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY. THE FORECAST IS A LITTLE TRICKIER FOR NORTHEASTERN SD
AND WESTERN MN AS THE LOW LINGERS NEARBY, AND A 15-30 CHANCE OF RAIN
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S, AND IN THE
60S TO LOW 70S WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S THROUGH FRIDAY, LOWEST OVER CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAY IMPACT THE KPIR/KMBG
TAF SITES DURING THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE TAF FORECAST. THE
BIGGEST CONCERN WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS NEAR A TAF SITE WILL BE
ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS.
OTHERWISE, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL VERY SLOWLY SLIDE FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL RESPOND BY BECOMING LIGHT AND
THEN SWITCHING TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION. WINDS HAVE ALREADY
SWITCHED AT KMBG. KPIR/KABR WILL FOLLOW SUITE CLOSER TO 12-15Z AND
KATY WILL BE LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...06
AVIATION...SERR
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