503
FXUS63 KABR 022106
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
406 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES, IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S, WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
- WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN WINDY THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH GUSTS RANGING FROM 30 TO 40 MPH, STRONGER SUNDAY AND WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK, LEVEL 1 OF 5, FOR SEVERE STORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. HEAVY RAIN
OR HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
- THE CHANCE OF RECEIVING 0.25 INCHES OF RAIN OR MORE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING IS GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT NORTHWEST OF A LINE
FROM PIERRE TO ABERDEEN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
WE'RE STARTING OUT TODAY UNDER A CLEAR SKY (ONLY A FEW CLOUDS OVER
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES) AND LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES 35 TO 45%.
WHILE THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE, WINDS WILL BE MUCH HIGHER FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT WAS SEND REGARDING
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH
MOST LOCATIONS BEING 3-6F BELOW RECORDS. THE LATEST SURFACE MAP
SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BLACK HILLS, WITH GENERAL LOW PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM WESTERN ND THROUGH WY AND CO. THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED FRIDAY AS IT MOVES OVER FAR
SOUTHEASTERN ND/WESTERN SD. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT,
INCREASING WINDS ALOFT, AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER MIXING THAN TODAY WILL
RESULT IN WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO NEAR 40 MPH
OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA, AND CLOSER TO 20 TO 30 MPH ACROSS EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE NEAR 35%, BUT CLOSER TO 25-30% OVER
OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THE QUICKLY DRYING GRASSES AND OTHER
FUELS, WITH LIMITED GREEN COMPONENTS, WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL
FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER JONES/LYMAN/STANLEY
COUNTIES. THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX VALUES WILL REACH THE HIGH
CATEGORY OVER SEVERAL OF OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY, AND
THEN OVER MOST OF OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON SATURDAY. A WEATHER STORY
REMAINS POSTED ABOUT FIRE SAFETY THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH FARMING.
WE'LL BE MONITORING THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY FOR POTENTIAL
HOTSPOTS.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AND BE 40-50KTS NEAR
900MB. SURFACE WINDS WILL ONLY RELAX SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. BY 12Z SATURDAY THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
STRETCH FROM JUST WEST OF JONES COUNTY UP THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL SD
AND NORTHEASTERN ND INTO SOUTHEASTERN MANITOBA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
TRICKY SATURDAY, WITH THE SLOWLY MEANDERING SURFACE LOW COLD FRONT
OVERHEAD. PRECIPITATION CHANCES START OVER CORSON COUNTY DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY, BUT HOLD OFF FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. OVERALL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL A 50% OR GREATER CHANCE OF RECEIVING 0.25
INCHES OF RAIN OR MORE NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM PIERRE TO ABERDEEN
(CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW).
BY 12Z SUNDAY THE ARE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN SOMEWHERE FROM
NORTH CENTRAL SD TO NORTHWESTERN MN. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN THE SPECIFICS. STILL, THIS DEEPENING/EXITING LOW WILL BRING EVEN
STRONGER WINDS FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY. THE 00Z AND 12Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR 40 MPH WIND GUSTS
SUNDAY, WITH A FEW INDICATING GUSTS OF 50-55 MPH POSSIBLE. THERE IS
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THE GUSTY WINDS AGAIN JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WON'T TAKE
MUCH TO MIX DOWN WITH ANY SHOWER OR STORM. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS. FORTUNATELY FIRE WEATHER WISE, RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES OVER MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE 50-70% AT A MINIMUM ON SUNDAY.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN FOR MONDAY WITH LIGHTER
WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S (OR ROUGHLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR).
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK CLOSER TO 70F FOR A HIGH BY
THURSDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WINDS SHIFT TO BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH WIND GUSTS LESS
THAN 10KTS OVER KATY AND KABR TO LESS THAN 15KTS OVER KMBG AND KPIR
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND EVENING. THEN THE WINDS SHIFT TO BE
MORE SOUTHERLY AND START TO SPEED UP FRIDAY MORNING, GUSTING UP TO
20 KTS DURING MID-MORNING. THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR OVER PIERRE AROUND 7Z DUE TO A DIFFERENCE IN WIND SPEEDS AND
DIRECTIONAL SHIFT. ADDITIONALLY, JUST A HEADS UP, THERE IS SOME
WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THAT LOOKS TO DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY
EVENING OVER AREAS EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. THIS POSSIBILITY WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS WE GET CLOSER TO FRIDAY EVENING.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...06
AVIATION...12
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