165
FXUS63 KABR 042016
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
316 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE EAST OF A LINE FROM
PRESHO TO ABERDEEN, WHERE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL GUST 30 TO 40
MPH. ON SUNDAY THE WINDS WILL BE SWITCHING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST,
WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK, LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5, FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
BRITTON TO CHAMBERLAIN. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN.
HEAVY RAIN OR HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
- THERE IS A 50 TO 75% CHANCE OF RAIN IN EXCESS OF 1" ALONG AND WEST
OF A LINE FROM POLLOCK TO EAGLE BUTTE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL SD THIS AFTERNOON.
NO LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH THEM, AS YET. THE COLD FRONT THAT IS
JUST AHEAD OF THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER AROUND NORTH
CENTRAL SD AND NORTHERN SD INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE IT FINALLY
DISSIPATES/EXITS. THIS EVENING IT WILL HELP TO SERVE AS A FOCAL
POINT FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT WILL BE ENHANCED BY A
PASSING UPPER TROUGH AND A STRENGTHENING 40 TO 50 KT LLJ EAST OF THE
SFC FRONT. CAPE IS LIMITED BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT SHEAR INCREASES TO
AROUND 55 KTS. STRONG WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE BIGGEST THREAT LATE
THIS EVENING.
NORTH CENTRAL SD MAY SEE SOME HEAVY RAIN (UP TO 2 INCHES) JUST DUE
TO RESIDENCE TIME TONIGHT. AREAS EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER MAY NOT
EVEN SEE WETTING RAINS UNLESS A THUNDERSTORM ROLLS OVERHEAD.
THE LLJ TONIGHT WILL KEEP SFC WINDS GUSTY FROM THE JAMES VALLEY
EAST. A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY.
WHILE THERE'S A STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SLACKENS OFF BY AFTERNOON AS DO THE WINDS. TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH, STRONGEST ALONG THE
COTEAU. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON WIND GUSTS AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATION SITES LIKE PEEVER TO MAKE SURE THE COTEAU ISN'T TAPPING
INTO THE 40 TO 50 KTS AT 850 MB.
THE COLDER AIR IN THE UPPER TROUGH AND BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONT
WILL MAX OUT HIGHS IN THE MID 50S IN NORTH CENTRAL SD ON SUNDAY.
TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR EAST WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY. PEEKING AHEAD
INTO THE WORK WEEK, GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING. AT THIS
TIME, OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE THE THRESHOLD FOR
FROST. SOUHTHERLY WINDS PICK BACK UP ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND COULD DECREASE
TO MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS FOR KMBG/KPIR THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WHEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO MAINLY AFFECT CENTRAL SD
(KMBG/KPIR) THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT MOVE THROUGH NORTHEASTERN SD THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST GUSTING UP AROUND 25KTS TO
OVER 35KTS OVER EAST CENTRAL SD. WINDS ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE FRONT
WILL BE GUSTING UP TO 20KTS. OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, THE
WINDS START TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND TO THE NORTHWEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WINDS SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL BE
GUSTING UP TO 25 TO 35KTS OVER ALL THE TERMINALS. THERE WILL BE LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVER EASTERN SD WHICH WILL AFFECT KATY AND KABR THIS
EVENING AND THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...12
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