232
FXUS63 KABR 052258
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
558 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
- LOCALLY PATCHY FROST IS A POSSIBILITY FOR MONDAY MORNING AND
TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY FOR NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
- AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WITH VISIBILITY LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 558 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
THERE ARE SOME EXTREMELY ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON RADAR,
BUT THE COVERAGE IS MINIMAL, AND MOST WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. WE'LL BE MONITORING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRATUS CLOUDS OR FOG OVER MAINLY CENTRAL SD TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ON FOG DEVELOPMENT. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO
THE ONGOING FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
LEAVING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DIMINISHING WINDS BEHIND IT.
THERE ARE A FEW NORTHERLY FLOW INSTABILITY SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS CENTRAL ND, AS WELL, WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY DIP INTO SD.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET.
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE NOW IS TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND
MONDAY NIGHT. FOR TONIGHT, WHILE THERE ARE A COUPLE OF MODELS, LIKE
THE NAM MOS, INDICATING TEMPS MAY FALL INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL SD, MOST OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S. LEANING TOWARD THIS SOLUTION, NOT JUST BECAUSE IT'S IN
THE MAJORITY, BUT BECAUSE OF THE SYNOPTIC SET UP WITH THE HIGH
COMING DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE UPPER TROUGH.
THIS IS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WHICH WOULD
MODERATE ANY TEMPERATURE FALLS.
THERE'S MORE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MONDAY NIGHT LOWS. MAIN
MODERATING FACTOR FOR TEMPERATURES WOULD BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS
WITH MORE WESTERLY FLOW.
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AGAIN MIDWEEK AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL
ABOVE NORMAL ON THAT WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW, AS WELL, WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 558 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO 10KTS OR LESS BY 03Z, WITH GUSTS
LINGERING LONGEST AT ATY. THERE ARE SOME EXTREMELY ISOLATED
SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON RADAR, BUT THE COVERAGE IS MINIMAL, AND MOST
WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WE'LL BE
MONITORING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS CLOUDS OR FOG OVER MAINLY
CENTRAL SD TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON FOG DEVELOPMENT. AS A
RESULT, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...06
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...06
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