423
FXUS63 KABR 071712
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1212 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LOCALLY PATCHY FROST IS A POSSIBILITY WEDNESDAY MORNING MAINLY FOR
FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
- SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1039 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH 00Z TODAY.
SKIES LOOK TO STAY MOSTLY SUNNY, ALTHOUGH SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS
IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE FSD/ABR CWA BORDER. OTHERWISE, WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVING THROUGH, WINDS WILL STAY ON THE LIGHT SIDE
WITH COOL HIGH TEMPS (NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL) IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS. PERHAPS A FEW AREAS IN THE GLACIAL
LAKES REGION AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS STAY STUCK IN THE UPPER 50S.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 150 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
A VERY SUBTLE WAVE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK ALONG
THE SD/ND STATE LINE, DRIFTING EAST SOUTHEAST. MOBRIDGE REPORTED A
LIGHT SPRINKLE, SO CONTINUED THAT ACROSS THE CWA. OTHERWISE,
TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST TOPICS FOR THE SHORT TERM. HIGHS
TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AS ONE HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS WITH A
SECOND MOVING INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING. THE POSITION
IS GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD DECOUPLING ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA, WITH A GRADIENT ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS FEATURE HELPING TO
SUPPORT LIGHT BUT SLOWLY INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST AND WESTERN MINNESOTA, MORE IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE. THEREAFTER, FROST POTENTIAL BECOMES AN AFTERTHOUGHT
AS TEMPERATURES RAMP UP ALOFT, WITH MORE MIXING. 1/2KM WINDS ARE
ALREADY ON THE INCREASE, PEAKING AT ABOUT 30KTS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 150 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
THE END OF WEEK WILL REMAIN DRY AS CLUSTERS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON A
FLATTENED RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS AS A SHORTWAVE WILL
PUSH ACROSS CANADA THURSDAY/FRIDAY. A CLOSED LOW WILL SIT JUST OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND ITS TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS CLOSED LOW WILL SHIFT A BIT SOUTH AND JUST
KIND OF SPIN OFF THE PACIFIC COAST, WITH THE RIDGE REMAINING
OVERHEAD. CLUSTERS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT THAT BY THE WEEKEND THE
WAVE OPENS UP AND SHIFTS MORE EASTWARD AND OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AS
THIS SHIFTS THE RIDGE FURTHER EAST. FURTHER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THIS -PNA PATTERN REMAINS BUT WE SEE MORE OF A
SPLIT FLOW, AS THE NORTHERN TROUGH (MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WEAKER)
SHIFTS EASTWARD, ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS AND CANADA, WHILE THE
SOUTHERN WAVE, DEEPENS AND BECOMES MORE POSITIVE TILTED OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS.
AT THE SURFACE, LEE TROUGHING SETS UP TO OUR WEST WEDNESDAY EVENING
WITH 850MB WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH BETWEEN 25-35KTS. WITH MIXING,
WIND GUSTS OVER CENTRAL SD ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM 25-35KTS,
HIGHEST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LLJ INCREASES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
AS IT SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE CWA. ADD IN SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE
SURFACE AND THIS WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS OVER AND ALONG THE SLOPES
OF THE COTEAU WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-35KTS. OTHERWISE, A DRY COLD FRONT
(FROM THIS SHORTWAVE/SURFACE LOW IN CANADA) WILL PASS OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY, WHICH REALLY ONLY LOOKS TO COOL DOWN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
BEHIND IT BY FRIDAY AS HIGH MOVES IN BEHIND IT. OTHERWISE, CHANCES
OF PRECIP COULD POSSIBLY RETURN THIS WEEKEND (AS THIS MORE
PROGRESSIVE, WEAKER SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH AND SURFACE LOW TRACKS
EAST OVER CANADA. EC IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE ON LIGHT PRECIP
CHANCES THAN GEFS/CANADIAN SATURDAY WITH BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE ENSEMBLES ON PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY. LATEST NBM POPS HAVE
A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OVER THE CWA SATURDAY, WITH CHANCES
INCREASING (35-45%) SUNDAY. INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE
INCOMING LOW, SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY, WITH
GUSTS OF 25-35KTS.
TEMPS WILL OVERALL RUN IN THE UPPER 60S AND RANGING IN THE 70S. OUR
WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO SATURDAY, WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S TO POSSIBLY LOWER
80S. COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WILL BE MONDAY WITH THE INCOMING HIGH
WITH FORECASTED HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S AS OF
NOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
THERE WILL BE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AS WELL AS
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO BE
FAIRLY LIGHT AND FROM THE NORTHEAST TO VARIABLE BEFORE TURNING TO
BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. THESE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL START
TO INCREASE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND PEAK DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS OVER CENTRAL SD ARE FORECAST TO GET UP TO 27 TO
30KTS BY THE MID-MORNING, AND GUSTS OVER NORTHEASTERN SD WILL GUST
UP TO 20 TO 25KTS.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...12
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...MMM
AVIATION...12
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