896
FXUS63 KABR 080517
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1217 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LOCALIZED AREAS OF FROST ARE A POSSIBILITY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING MAINLY FOR PARTS OF THE JAMES VALLEY INTO FAR NORTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
- SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 744 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE TONIGHT PERIOD FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA. SKIES ARE
CLEAR AND WINDS ARE LIGHT. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S, AND LIKE LAST NIGHT, THERE IS SOME PATCHY FOG MENTION
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
SEE BELOW FOR AN AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT,
ALLOWING FOR THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z IN
RESPONSE TO THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES. NOT LOOKING AT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA, ALTHOUGH THE FAR EASTERN CWA, AND INTO PORTIONS OF
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY MAY SEE LIGHT WINDS FOR A LONG ENOUGH TIME TO
PROMOTE SOME FROST FORMATION CLOSER TO SUNRISE. NO PLANS FOR A
HEADLINE HIGHLIGHTING FROST AS THE AREAL COVERAGE AND UNCERTAINTY IN
JUST HOW COLD TEMPS WILL GET GO AGAINST THIS DECISION. THAT SAID,
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED AT ALL TO SEE FAVORED COLD SPOTS, AND/OR
AREAS OF THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA SEE LOCALIZED FROST.
PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS RATHER TIGHT ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS GUSTING TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH FOR MANY LOCATIONS WEST OF
THE JAMES RIVER. COULD ACTUALLY BE SOME MARGINAL ADVISORY-LEVEL
(GUSTS 45MPH OR HIGHER) WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL SD, SO SOMETHING TO
WATCH FOR. NBM PROBABILITY FOR GUSTS IN ADVISORY-LEVEL ARE AROUND
50% OR HIGHER ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL SD. BY
AFTERNOON, 850MB TEMPS RANGE FROM ABOUT +10C TO +15C ACROSS THE
REGION, SO LOOKING AT RATHER MILD (ABOVE NORMAL) HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S. FIRE DANGER WILL BE ELEVATED THANKS TO THE STRONG
WINDS, BUT HUMIDITY DOESN'T LOOK TO GET CRITICALLY LOW. DID BLEND IN
SOME LOWER END (NBM25TH) DEWPOINTS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT RH
IS STILL FORECAST TO BE 30-40% AT IT'S LOWEST FOR PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE WINDY AS WELL, ALTHOUGH THE FOCUS SHIFTS
TO THE EASTERN CWA WHERE 30-40 MPH GUSTS ARE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN.
LOOKING AHEAD A BIT FURTHER, IT APPEARS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MIGHT BE
ANOTHER COUPLE DAYS OF WINDY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE
CONDITIONS. PROBABLY ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ONCE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND,
BUT STILL NOT SEEING RH LEVELS GET DOWN TO NEAR CRITICAL VALUES.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND ALSO AS A
SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. DO NOT SEE
ABUNDANT AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM, AND NBM PROBABILITY
FOR 0.25IN OR GREATER IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD IS ONLY AROUND 40% OR
LOWER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND PEAK DURING
THIS AFTERNOON. PEAK WIND GUSTS FOR KPIR/KMBG WILL BE RIGHT
AROUND 30KTS, CLOSER TO 25KTS FOR KABR/KATY.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...07
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