804
FXUS63 KABR 081703 AAB
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1203 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ON TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY, OUT OF THE SOUTH, WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40
MPH OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
- 35 TO 55% CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY, MAINLY FOR THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AND EASTWARD. PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL AT OR OVER A QUARTER OF
AN INCH IS 45% OR LESS FOR THIS LOCATION.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW HAS BEEN UPDATED IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE
18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 952 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND IS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THIS
MORNING, WITH THE MAIN IMPACT AREAS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY COME CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT
NO HEADLINE IS OUT AT THIS TIME, NOR ARE THERE PLANS TO ISSUE AT
CURRENT. HOWEVER, WIND OBS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY TODAY. ALREADY
A HANDFUL OF 30 MPH GUSTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA, AND COVERAGE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO EXPAND THIS
AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER IS ALSO A BIT OF A CONCERN TODAY, BUT
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHERLY WINDS HELPS KEEP AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY UP ENOUGH TO ABATE ANY RED FLAG CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE,
FORECAST APPEARS TO BE MOSTLY ON TRACK, AND NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE
BEEN MADE AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR TODAY. NAM BUFKIT
MIXING DEPTH OF 4-5KFT YIELDS UPPER 20 TO MID 30S (KTS) WITH THE
CORE OF STRONGEST WINDS UP THE MISSOURI VALLEY THROUGH WITH JUST A
SLIGHT DROP OVER IN THE JAMES VALLEY. THE FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE
AND WESTERN MINNESOTA HAS LOWEST WINDS SPEEDS FOR TODAY.
NBM TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND 70 ARE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR TODAY. CAMS AND NBM DEWPOINTS ARE RIGHT AROUND 50F WEST RIVER,
TO AROUND 40 IN THE FAR NORTHEAST. NOT A LOT OF RANGE BETWEEN THE
25TH/75TH IN THE HREF (1 TO 5 DEGREES) WITH THE CORE OF HIGHEST
UNCERTAINTY DOWN TOWARDS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND ONLY ABOUT 2-4F
FOR THE NBM. AS SUCH, FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN TEMPERATURES/HUMIDITY WITH
NEITHER BEING SO EXTREME AS TO WARRANT ANY SORT OF FIRE HEADLINE OR
UPGRADE TO VERY HIGH/EXTREME FOR THE FIRE DANGER.
1/2KM WINDS INCREASE TO 35-40KTS WITH THE CORE SHIFTING INTO EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND GENERATES FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS. THE CORE
OF WINDS CONTINUES TO MIGRATE EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND WEAKENS.
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS CONTINUE UPWARDS INTO THURSDAY AS
WELL.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY EVENING
AND CENTER ITSELF OVER THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
POSITIONED UNDER A RIDGE ALOFT. FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND THE
RIDGE (AND HIGH) SHIFTS EAST AS WE SEE MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN
SET UP AS A WEAKER, FASTER SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS
CANADA/NORTHERN CONUS AND THE SOUTHERN WAVE'S TROUGH REMAIN FAIRLY
STATIONARY AND DEEPER, BECOMING MORE POSITIVE TILTED OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST, THEN NORTHEAST ACROSS CANADA THIS
WEEKEND AS A SECONDARY LOW/TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE REGION AND ITS
COLD FRONT SUNDAY. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE
LATEST NBM POPS RANGING FROM 20-55% THIS WEEKEND, WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS ON SUNDAY OVER NORTHEASTERN SD/WESTERN MN, CLOSER TO THE LOW.
PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL>0.25" PER NBM IS HIGHEST OVER FAR
NORTHEASTERN SD/WESTERN MN AT ONLY 45% BETWEEN 00Z SUNDAY-00Z MONDAY
AS OF NOW.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO LEAD TO STEEPER PRESSURE GRADIENTS/HIGHER
WINDS ALOFT WHICH WILL INCREASE WIND SPEEDS OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FOR SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT (WITHIN WARM
SECTOR). DETERMINISTIC NBM INDICATES GUSTS OF 30 TO POTENTIALLY 40
MPH BY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. THIS LEADS TO AN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
SD DUE TO DRIER FUELS ALONG WITH THESE GUSTY WINDS. MINIMUM RH IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 50% IN THIS AREA. WINDS
WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH,
HIGHEST OVER THE COTEAU. AS THE FROPA PASSES OVER THE CWA SUNDAY
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND IT WITH THE ENTIRE CWA IN
NORTHWEST FLOW BY ~SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS A HIGH
MOVES IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RUN AROUND TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FRIDAY AND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY IN THE 60S AND 70S.
SUNDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY WITH TEMPS POTENTIALLY 5-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY
HITTING THE MID TO UPPER 70S EAST OF THE MO RIVER. BEHIND THE FROPA
HIGHS ARE ONLY FORECASTED IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S WHICH IS
ABOUT NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, AND SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR UNTIL SOME HIGH TO MID CLOUDS MOVE IN THURSDAY.
THE BIGGER AVIATION CONCERN IS THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WIND
GUSTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. PEAK WINDS
WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA,
WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS MAY REACH 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. AREAS
FURTHER EAST WILL STILL SEE GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT DUE
TO THE LACK OF GOOD MIXING, BEFORE REBOUNDING IN STRENGTH OVER
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS DECREASE,
POCKETS OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY EMERGE. THIS WILL MAINLY OCCUR
OVER NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA WHERE THE LOW-
LEVEL JET IS LOCATED, BUT IT WILL DEPEND A BIT ON JUST HOW LOW
SURFACE WINDS GET. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH ON TIMING AND LOCATION
TO EXCLUDE ANY MENTION FROM THE TAFS, BUT IT WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND VEER NORTHWESTERLY THURSDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...BC
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...MMM
AVIATION...BC
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