164  
FXUS63 KABR 131730  
AFDABR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD  
1230 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- THERE IS A 50-70% CHANCE OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY  
TUESDAY. AREAS SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 212 HAVE A 40% CHANCE OF  
RECEIVING 0.25" OF RAIN OR MORE.  
 
- THERE IS A 20-40% CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WEDNESDAY (ACCUMULATIONS  
OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS) BEFORE CHANCES INCREASE TO 50-80%  
THURSDAY. HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN CENTRAL SD WITH A 40  
TO 60% CHANCE OF MORE THAN A HALF INCH.  
 
 
   
UPDATE  
 
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2025  
 
THE ONGOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, WITH FEW CHANGES OVER THE  
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE  
REMAINS OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES HAVE NOW ROSE INTO THE 40S TO NEAR  
50F AS OF 17Z.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/  
 
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2025  
 
THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT THE GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST  
WINDS YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO DEPART THE AREA, ALLOWING A HIGH  
PRESSURE RIDGE TO MOVE INTO WESTERN SD (FROM A HIGH IN ALBERTA).  
THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS  
TODAY. THAT WILL BE A KEY FACTOR IN ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO  
CONTINUE TO DROP THIS MORNING UNDER CLEAR SKIES. AS OF 2AM, AREAS  
THAT HAVE SEEN WINDS DROP OFF IN NORTH CENTRAL SD ARE SEEING  
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 30S. THUS, THE EXISTING FREEZE WARNING  
LOOKING TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. WOULDN'T SURPRISE ME TO SEE SOME AREAS  
BORDERING THE FREEZE WARNING (IN THE FROST ADVISORY) TO SEE TEMPS  
FALL TOWARDS FREEZING FOR A COUPLE HOURS THIS MORNING. ONE FINAL  
THING OF NOTE, THERE IS AN AREA OF STRATUS OVER ND THAT HAS BEEN  
ATTEMPTING TO SLIDE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. WITH THE LOW  
LEVEL WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHWEST-NORTHERLY THROUGH THE MORNING,  
COULD SEE THEM TRYING TO REACH NORTHERN SD, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT  
THIS TIME (MODELS LIMITED ON THE EXTENT OF THAT MOISTURE MAKING IT  
HERE).  
 
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS  
THE DAKOTAS TODAY, LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS AND A SUNNY SKY (AT LEAST  
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY). THE SUN WILL HELP OFFSET THE COOLER  
AIR ALOFT AND PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S. WILL SEE  
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST,  
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THIS IS  
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION  
THAT WILL LEAD TO LIGHT SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. THE  
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE FALL TONIGHT AND KEEP  
ANY FROST POTENTIAL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. AS FOR THE PRECIP  
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, THE INITIAL PUSH OF PRECIP WILL BE RUNNING  
INTO THE LINGERING DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH AS IT MOVES IN TONIGHT. BUT  
THE PERSISTENT 850-700MB SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO  
REINFORCE THE WAA/MOISTURE AND LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT  
SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY (ESPECIALLY WITH THE ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE  
HELP). WHILE CHANCES ARE GOOD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR MEASURABLE  
RAIN (50-80% ON TUESDAY, LOWEST NORTH CENTRAL), THE SOUTHEAST  
HALF/THIRD OF SD WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR 24HR/EVENT  
ACCUMULATIONS OVER 0.1" AND 0.25" (60-70% AND 40-60% RESPECTIVELY).  
LIKE THE LAST EVENT, SEEING QPF DIFFERENCES IN THE EC-ENS/GEFS, WITH  
THE EC-ENS MEAN BEING ABOUT TWICE THE AMOUNT OF THE GEFS. FINALLY,  
WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS TOMORROW, EXPECT TEMPS TO BE IN THE  
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S, WHICH WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2025  
 
THE MAIN STORY FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND  
THURSDAY. STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT, WE ARE UNDER WESTERLY TO  
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH A TROUGH OFF TO OUR WEST AND A  
LOW OVER CALIFORNIA. THIS LOW WILL RIDE THE DOWNWIND SIDE OF THE  
TROUGH AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY  
BEFORE MOVING INTO CANADA. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON LOW TRACK  
AND TIMING FOR THIS EVENT. THE LOWER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE  
REGION THURSDAY AND LOOKS TO BE OUT BY FRIDAY MORNING. A SHORTWAVE  
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY, PROJECTED SOUTH FROM THE THURSDAY  
LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO ONTARIO.  
 
SHOWERS MOVE OUT TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE WE GET A STRONG PUSH OF WAA  
WEDNESDAY THAT COMBINES WITH SOME DEEP MOISTURE COMING UP FROM THE  
GULF TO POP OFF SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE MAIN EVENT  
THURSDAY. THESE SHOWERS LOOK TO IMPACT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT  
QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS AT MOST. MODELS ARE  
SHOWING THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION FOR THURSDAY WILL BE OVER  
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL SD. THE NBM HAS THE CHANCE OF MORE THAN A  
QUARTER OF AN INCH IN 24 HOURS ENDING THURSDAY EVENING BETWEEN 50  
AND 70% ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM EUREKA TO PIERRE. THE CHANCE  
OF MORE THAN A HALF INCH IN THE SAME 24 HOURS IS AROUND 40 TO 60%  
WEST RIVER.  
 
WE STAY IN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR  
THE MOST PART AS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA STAYS ON THE EASTERN SIDE  
OF THE LOW. THIS WILL KEEP UP THE WAA THROUGH THE EVENT, BRINGING  
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY INTO THE 60S AND INTO THE 70S POTENTIALLY ON  
THURSDAY. ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY  
AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND  
BRING IN A LITTLE CAA WHICH WILL COOL OUR HIGHS SLIGHTLY, LOOKS LIKE  
BACK INTO THE 50S TO 60S FOR THE WEEKEND. SPEAKING OF WINDS, NOTHING  
TOO EXCITING HAPPENING THERE OTHER THAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME  
STRONG CAA WITH THAT SHORTWAVE THAT COULD HELP MIX SOME GUSTS OF 25-  
30 MPH DOWN TO THE SURFACE MAINLY WEST RIVER BUT THERE COULD ALSO BE  
SOME ISOLATED GUSTS AROUND THE SISSETON HILLS.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2025  
 
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT  
RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST COULD BRING MVFR CEILINGS OR  
VISIBILITIES TO PIR BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 18Z TUESDAY.  
 
 
   
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
SD...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
UPDATE...06  
SHORT TERM...SRF  
LONG TERM...13  
AVIATION...06  
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