700
FXUS63 KABR 160957
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
457 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS MORNING
BEFORE FADING BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THIS
AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
- THERE IS A 30-70% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY,
WITH HIGHEST CHANCES OVER NORTH CENTRAL SD AS WELL AS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SD. THERE IS A 30-50% CHANCE OF MORE THAN
A QUARTER INCH MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SD.
- WINDY CONDITIONS (NW GUSTS 30-40MPH) AND ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ON
SATURDAY, THEN COLD TEMPERATURES (NEAR/BELOW FREEZING) IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 456 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
A FAIRLY DYNAMICAL WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING AS A WELL ORGANIZED SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PIVOTS NORTHEAST OUT OF CO AND WESTERN NE INTO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL SD. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, WE'VE SEEN SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED TAME, ALTHOUGH
SOME OF THE HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PRODUCED SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. THE OTHER THING WE STILL CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH IS LOW
STRATUS AND FOG. IS HAS BEEN THE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE MORE PRONE AREAS OF THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE PRAIRIE COTEAU IN NORTHEAST SD. ALSO, AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE
BEEN AFFECTING PARTS OF OUR WESTERN ZONES FROM WEST RIVER ZONES
NORTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL SD. FROM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS TO OUR
NETWORK OF WEBCAMS INDICATE VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN DOWN TO A MILE OR
LESS IN SPOTS. THIS WILL BE THE SET UP AS WE BEGIN THE DAY TODAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
SHIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR CWA THIS MORNING AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW NUDGES FARTHER NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL SD
THROUGH THE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS. AFTER THIS MORNING ROUND OF
RAINFALL CLEARS THE AREA TO THE NORTH, WE COULD SEE A BREAK IN ANY
STEADY RAINFALL. AS THE SFC LOW SHIFTS INTO ND LATER THIS AFTERNOON,
AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOPS WITH THIS FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
PRIMARILY AFFECTING AREAS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL SD INTO NORTHEAST SD
AND WEST CENTRAL MN. PARAMETERS FOR ANY ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FROPA CONTINUES TO LOOK MEAGER. EVEN
THOUGH SHEAR VALUES ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SOME ROBUST CONVECTION,
CAPE VALUES ARE LACKING AND GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 500 J/KG.
LINGERING GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS LOOK TO BE MAINTAINED ACROSS PARTS
OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL SD OR OUR WESTERN ZONES AS THE PARENT
UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OF WY INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS LATE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THERE REMAINS A 30-50 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF MORE THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL SD AS
WELL AS SECTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL SD NORTHEAST INTO THE JAMES VALLEY
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A PERUSAL OF HI-RES
VISIBILITY GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE THAT PERHAPS FOGGY CONDITIONS WILL
HOLD ON THE LONGEST ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL SD THROUGH THE
MID-LATE MORNING HOURS.
THIS WHOLE SYSTEM WILL PIVOT NORTH AND EAST INTO ND TONIGHT AND INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA ON FRIDAY. OUR AREA PICKS UP ON A DRIER, WESTERLY
FLOW OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A SOUTHWEST COMPONENT TO THE WIND
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MAY ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS ALONG THE PRONE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU. OTHERWISE, WE SHOULD
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY WITH COOLER, DRIER WESTERLY
BREEZES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WHERE READINGS SHOULD WARM INTO
THE LOW TO MID 70S TODAY. FARTHER WEST, TEMPS WILL BE HELD IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S. A COOLER NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
40S TO LOW 50S. THIS TREND WILL SPILL OVER INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S, WHICH FOR MOST OF OUR AREA REMAINS
CLOSE TO OR JUST A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 456 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
FRIDAY EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER WESTERN
ONTARIO AND OUR UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OUT OF THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW
MOVES INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH A TROUGH TRAILING DOWN INTO OUR
AREA TO MOVE ACROSS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES IN BEHIND THIS TROUGH AND LOOKS TO LAST
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME DISPARITY BETWEEN
MODELS ON THE TIMING. THE EC SHOWS THE INCOMING TROUGH STAYING OFF
TO OUR WEST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WHILE THE CANADIAN AND GFS BRING
IT IN A BIT SOONER. MODELS SEEM TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW
BEING GENERALLY OUT OF OUR REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH A POSSIBLE
SECONDARY TROUGH MOVING ACROSS ON WEDNESDAY. DOWN AT THE SURFACE,
THE FIRST COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING WINDS AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST. WITH SOME HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY AND AHEAD OF THE MONDAY
LOW, BRINGING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SOME WAA. THEN THE SECOND COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY TO BRING WINDS BACK
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
DESPITE THE COLD FRONTS, THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO BE PRETTY DRY AND
RELATIVELY MILD. THERE ARE A FEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS (20-30%) EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WE GET A PRETTY GOOD PUSH OF CAA THAT
WILL HELP MIX DOWN SOME STRONGER WINDS RESULTING IN SOME POSSIBLE 30-
40 MPH GUSTS SATURDAY AND 25-35 MPH GUSTS MONDAY AFTERNOONS, MAINLY
WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. THIS WILL HELP ELEVATE GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER BOTH DAYS, HOWEVER, RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE HIGH ENOUGH
TO KEEP US OUT OF RED FLAG TERRITORY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL OSCILLATE BETWEEN 5 DEGREES ABOVE AND 5 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE WITH THE SERIES OF COLD FRONTS, CAA, AND WAA. OTHER THAN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT, LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S
WITH POTENTIAL FOR FROST/FREEZE, ALTHOUGH FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES
WILL NOT BE ISSUED SINCE WE HAVE REACHED THE END OF THE GROWING
SEASON.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
CIGS ARE PRIMARILY IFR THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
WINDS SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHERLY AND HELP SCOUR OUT SOME OF THIS
MOISTURE. VISBY WILL BE A MIX OF VFR TO IFR WITH FOG AND DRIZZLE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
FOR KABR/KPIR, AND POSSIBLY STORMS UP AROUND KMBG. OTHERWISE,
INITIALLY WE ARE HAVING SOME LLWS, THAT IMPROVES BY MID-MORNING AS
WELL.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR SDZ007-008-
011-019>023.
MN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VIPOND
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...VIPOND
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page