937
FXUS63 KABR 171722 AAC
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1222 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDS INCREASE SATURDAY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST, WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO
40 MPH. THE WINDS WILL CAUSE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
- LOWS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEAR OR AT FREEZING RANGING IN THE
30S.
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY
COOLER READINGS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SET IN ON
MONDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
UPDATED DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS BELOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1008 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
AN NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH IS POSITIONED
OVER CENTRAL SD WHICH LIES SOUTHWEST OF THE NEARLY STACKED LOW
CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER NORTHEASTERN ND/MANITOBA. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE SOUTH OF THIS LOW, ALONG THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH,
IS PRODUCING A LINE OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS PER SATELLITE. THESE
CLOUDS WILL DRIFT EAST/SOUTHEAST OVER THE CWA THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH ADDITIONAL MID TO HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN BEHIND THIS WITH OUR
NEXT SHORTWAVE. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH, HIGHEST OVER NORTH CENTRAL
SD/LEOLA HILLS AND OVER THE SISSETON HILLS. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE
TO THE FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IS
PRODUCING LIGHT PCPN ACROSS WESTERN ND AND NORTHWEST SD THIS
MORNING. THE LIGHT RAIN MAY SPREAD INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
CWA AROUND 10Z OR SO. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS EASTERN SD AND WESTERN MN. THESE SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH
12Z BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE CWA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD
MOVE INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY THIS AFTERNOON, LEAVING BEHIND
WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH.
A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE PAC NW WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE
SHORTWAVE, WITH THE SOUTH CENTRAL CWA HAVING THE BEST POTENTIAL OF
SEEING A TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF, OR A 15 TO 25% CHANCE. VARIOUS
OTHER MODELS, LIKE THE HREF AND ECAM, SUGGEST SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF
THE CWA ON SATURDAY, WITH ONLY MINOR QPF. INCREASING NORTHWEST WIND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM.
BUFFER SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FAVORABLE MIXING WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH PEAK GUSTS REACHING 25 TO 35 KNOTS.
THANKFULLY, WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG, REACHING THE 40
KNOT RANGE OVER CENTRAL SD. BASED ON DETERMINISTIC MODELS, PRESSURE
RISES ARE BEST OVER SOUTHWEST SD AND INTO NEBRASKA. THE WINDS WILL
CAUSE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
THE PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH EXITING OUR REGION TO THE EAST. IT WILL BE REPLACED WITH
RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SFC
RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE TOP OF OUR FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY MORNING LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURE READINGS ARE LIKELY TO START OFF THE DAY A COUPLE
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE FREEZING MARK. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS RIDGE AXIS COMMENCES DURING THE DAY PROVIDING A
BUMP UP IN TEMPERATURES. WARM ADVECTION WILL KICK IN DURING THE DAY
WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT BETWEEN +5C TO +10C IN OUR
EASTERN ZONES AND BETWEEN ABOUT +10C AND +15C ACROSS OUR WESTERN
ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S, WHICH IS AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. THIS LITTLE WARM UP WILL BE BRIEF HOWEVER AS ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL GENERATE A SFC LOW THAT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA BY EARLY
MONDAY. SOME LIGHT PCPN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
MAINLY BE CONFINED TO OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND/OR FARTHER NORTH. THERE
WON'T BE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, SO ONLY ANTICIPATE LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN ON MONDAY WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO 0C TO +5C DURING THE DAY AND INTO NEGATIVE
TERRITORY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE IS PROGGING A
FAIRLY WINDY DAY ON MONDAY. NBM PROBABILITIES OF 24 HOUR MAX GUSTS
GREATER THAN 45 MPH RANGE FROM 40-60 PERCENT IN OUR EAST TO 60-80
PERCENT IN OUR WEST ON MONDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE SFC AND ALOFT
PERSISTS INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF COOL TUESDAY
MORNING WITH READINGS IN THE 30S, WHICH IS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. ANOTHER SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN ON TUESDAY AND THEN IS QUICKLY
FOLLOWED BY A WEAKER UPPER TROUGH TOWARD THE END OF THIS PERIOD.
MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN LIMITED LATE IN THE TERM, SO WE WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A DRY FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST/SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST,
WITH OUR NEXT SYSTEM, THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS 20-30KTS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, HIGHEST OVER CENTRAL SD AND THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE COTEAU. LOWER CLOUDS, AND MORE OF A WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH THE SYSTEM OVERHEAD. CLOUDS WILL
BE ON THE DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE CWA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SATURDAY, MAINLY KPIR. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT, WINDS WILL SWITCH OUT OF THE NORTHWEST EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH GUSTS BY THE AFTERNOON BETWEEN 25-35KTS, HIGHEST OVER
CENTRAL SD.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...MMM
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...VIPOND
AVIATION...MMM
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