417
FXUS63 KABR 181734 AAC
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1234 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDS INCREASE TODAY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST, WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO
40 MPH ALONG/WEST OF JAMES RIVER. THE WINDS WILL CAUSE ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA.
- LOWS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING RANGING IN THE
LOW/MID 30S.
- STRONG WINDS AND ELEVATED FIRE DANGER RETURN MONDAY. PROBABILITIES
OF WIND GUSTS MORE THAN 45 MPH IS 50-90 PERCENT, HIGHEST OVER
CENTRAL SD.
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY
COOLER READINGS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1026 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
BAND OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MAKE PROGRESS EASTWARD AND SHOULD
BE EXITING THE CWA BY 17Z. MAY NEED TO TRIM BACK EDGE OF POPS AND
END PRECIP CHANCES A BIT SOONER LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, STILL EXPECTING NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE
TODAY AS GUSTS RANGE FROM 30 TO 40 MPH ACROSS CENTRAL SD INTO THE
JAMES VALLEY. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 50S STILL LOOK OK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING
THE AREA WITH LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. THE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, WITH LIGHT
SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA. THE PROBABILITY OF SEEING 0.01
INCHES OF QPF PER THE NBM EXCEEDS 45 PERCENT OVER A GOOD PORTION OF
THE CWA. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY IS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
SD WHERE THE CHANCE IS OVER 60 PERCENT. THE HIGHER POTENTIAL LINES
UP WITH DETERMINISTIC MODELS AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS. ECAM AND HREF
SUGGEST THE PCPN WILL PUSH EAST OF THE CWA BETWEEN 18 AND 21Z.
BEHIND THE PCPN, THE AREA WILL SEE INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 MPH EXPECTED. SIX HOUR PRESSURE RISES HAVE
INCREASED SOME COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY, BUT STILL MOSTLY
IMPACTING WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY. BUFFER
SOUNDINGS STILL SUPPORT PEAK WIND GUSTS REACHING 30 TO 35 KNOTS AT
TIMES, OR SUB-ADVERISORY LEVELS. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE LATER THIS
EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD
ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW 32 DEGREES F BY SUNDAY MORNING
OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY
WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA WITH HIGHS REACHING THE
MID 50S, TO THE MID 60S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN INCOMING UPPER TROUGH FROM
THE WEST THAT WILL REPLACE A DEPARTING UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST AS
THIS PERIOD BEGINS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THIS UPPER TROUGH
WILL SPAWN A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK INTO THE
DAKOTAS ON MONDAY. AN ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SET
OFF A 30-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT WILL PRIMARILY
AFFECT OUR NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE DAY. MOISTURE STILL LOOKS TO
REMAIN SCANT WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY THAT MAY PRODUCE UPWARD OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF RAINFALL. THE BIGGER STORY THIS SYSTEM WILL DELIVER WILL BE
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KICK IN AS
THE FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO A RANGE BETWEEN 0C AND +5C DURING THE DAY
AND THEN EVENTUALLY GOING SUBZERO MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THE COMBINATION OF THIS CAA ALONG WITH PRESSURE RISES AND DAYTIME
MIXING WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS. NBM SUGGESTS
PROBABILITIES OF SEEING WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 45 MPH RANGE FROM 50-
90 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF OUR SD ZONES ON MONDAY WITH THE HIGHEST
WIND GUST PROBS WEST OF THE JAMES VALLEY INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN
SD. IN FACT, PROBABILITIES OF SEEING WINDS GREATER THAN 55 MPH RUN
ABOUT 50-70 PERCENT WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE TRENDS FOR THE POTENTIAL NEED FOR WIND
HEADLINES.
A TIGHT GRADIENT IS MAINTAINED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY
FROM THE JAMES VALLEY AND POINT EAST. SO, ANTICIPATE THAT GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THESE AREAS DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. NOT EXPECTING NEARLY AS STRONG OF WINDS COMPARED TO MONDAY,
BUT GUSTS COULD STILL REACH A 25-35 MPH RANGE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
PRAIRIE COTEAU. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS FROM NORTHERN MN
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES, SOME WRAP AROUND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES MONDAY NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS
THEN PROGGED TO TAKE HOLD GOING THROUGH MIDWEEK TIME FRAME. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONAL.
ONCE THAT HIGH DRIFTS FARTHER EAST LATE IN THE PERIOD, A WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED AS WAA COMMENCES AND TEMPERATURE READINGS GO BACK
ABOVE NORMAL THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY
NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS FROM 25 TO 35 KNOTS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER
SUNSET.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...VIPOND
AVIATION...TMT
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