116
FXUS63 KABR 190112 AAB
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
812 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING FOR MANY AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER.
- STRONG WINDS AND ELEVATED FIRE DANGER RETURN MONDAY. PROBABILITY OF
WIND GUSTS 50MPH OR GREATER IS 60-90 PERCENT ACROSS CENTRAL SD.
- WIDESPREAD MID/UPPER 20S TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BRING THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES THUS FAR IN FALL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 810 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
HAD SOME LATE AFTERNOON ISO'D/SCT'D SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DEVELOP FOR A FEW HOURS WITHIN A VERY DEEPLY MIXED (FOR
OCTOBER) BOUNDARY LAYER, PER KABR 00Z RAOB. WITH SUNSET, THE
PRECIPITATION OVER THIS CWA HAS PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATED. THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT REMAINS UNCHANGED. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA BY 12Z SUNDAY, PUTS SURFACE WINDS THE
LIGHTEST, AND TEMPERATURES THE COLDEST, OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY. AGAIN, THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS BEEN SHELVED FOR THE
YEAR, WITH THE CLIMATOLOGICAL GROWING SEASON DECLARED TO BE OVER.
THAT MEANS, THERE WON'T BE ANY MORE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES OR
MENTION OF FROST IN THE FORECAST OVER THIS CWA FOR THE REST OF THE
YEAR. THAT BEING SAID, GIVEN HOW WARM IT HAS BEEN THIS FALL, IF
ANYONE HAS PORCH PLANTS OR VEGETATION THEY WANT TO KEEP ALIVE,
THEY SHOULD BRING IT INSIDE OR COVER IT FOR TONIGHT, BECAUSE THE
PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT IN AND
WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY IS ~30% TO 90%.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
SEE BELOW FOR AN AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT, BRINGING
LIGHT BREEZES AND CLEAR SKIES. WHILE WE ARE NOT UNDER THE HIGH
CENTER DIRECTLY, WE SHOULD STILL SEE TEMPERATURES DROP DOWN TO
AROUND FREEZING OR A TAD BELOW FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER. AS THIS RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY, SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. 850MB TEMPS NEAR +10C ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA
WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ON MONDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. NBM
PROBABILITY FOR 50MPH OR GREATER GUSTS IS AROUND 60-90% ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL SD. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR HEADLINE POTENTIAL IN THE
COMING SHIFTS.
RATHER CHILLY AIR MASS MOVES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ON TUESDAY,
WITH GRAND ENSEMBLE 850MB TEMPS FROM -1C TO -3C (ROUGHLY 15TH
PERCENTILE) AT 12Z TUESDAY. UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S LOOK TO BE THE
HIGHS ON TUESDAY, WHICH IS A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
PRETTY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE TUESDAY NIGHT,
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. COULD BE SETTING THE STAGE
FOR THE COLDEST NIGHT THUS FAR IN FALL AS INHERITED NBM TEMPS HAVE
UPPER 20S FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. TAKING A BIT DEEPER LOOK
INTO THE JAMES VALLEY POTENTIAL TEMPS, AND NOTICING THE NBM
PROBABILITY FOR LOWS 25 DEGREES OR COLDER IS AROUND 40 PERCENT. DID
OPT TO LOWER ABERDEEN LOWS JUST A COUPLE DEGREES TUESDAY NIGHT.
NOT SEEING MUCH FOR IMPACTFUL WEATHER BEYOND TUESDAY AS CONDITIONS
LOOK MOSTLY DRY AND FEATURES A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. BY NEXT
SATURDAY, GRAND ENSEMBLE SHOWS 850MB TEMPS BACK UP AROUND +10C TO
+14C, WHICH IS AROUND THE 75TH PERCENTILE CLIMO-SPEAKING. INHERITED
NBM HIGHS ARE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S NEXT SATURDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...10
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