922  
FXUS63 KABR 191137 AAA  
AFDABR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD  
637 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- STRONG WINDS AND ELEVATED FIRE DANGER RETURN MONDAY. PROBABILITY  
OF WIND GUSTS 45 MPH OR GREATER IS 60-80 PERCENT ACROSS CENTRAL SD.  
 
- WIDESPREAD MID/UPPER 20S TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BRING THE  
COLDEST TEMPERATURES THUS FAR THIS SEASON.  
 
 
   
UPDATE  
 
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025  
 
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAFS.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON/  
 
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025  
 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE PAC NW COAST WILL CAUSE A  
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. SOUTHERLY  
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DRAW WARMER AIR INTO THE CWA WITH HIGHS  
REACHING THE MID 50S, TO THE MID 60S. THESE READINGS ARE ONE TO FIVE  
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BY 0Z MONDAY, THE UPPER  
LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, WITH A  
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WEST OF THE DAKOTAS. THE SURFACE LOW  
SHOULD APPROACH THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH  
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA. DECENT PRESSURE  
FALLS MAY CAUSE GUSTY WINDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREA OF THE  
SISSETON HILLS. AS THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES NORTHEAST OF THE CWA ON  
MONDAY, INCREASING PRESSURE RISES, ALONG WITH FAVORABLE MIXING WINDS  
SHOULD PRODUCE WINDS GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.  
THE NBM SHOWS A 40 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 45  
MPH WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. LATER FORECAST SHIFTS MAY NEED  
TO CONSIDER A WIND ADVISORY FOR MONDAY. THE PROBABLY OF SEEING  
GUSTS OF 60 MPH WITH LOW, OR UNDER 15 PERCENT.  
 
WHILE THE NBM SUGGESTS MOST OF THE PCPN OCCURRING IN NORTH DAKOTA  
WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM, THERE ARE SOME "DRY" PERIODS WHERE PCPN MAY  
OCCUR. SOME CAMS SUGGEST LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY  
ACROSS EASTERN SD AND WESTERN MN MONDAY MORNING, BETWEEN 12-16Z.  
OTHER CAMS, PLUS THE NAM, SUPPORT SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWEST  
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE NBM  
LEFT THIS TIME PERIOD DRY, HAVE ADDED A 20 POP TO MATCH NEIGHBORING  
CWAS.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025  
 
A COLDER AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA BEHIND A  
DEPARTING SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO  
TUESDAY. A CAA PATTERN WILL DRIVE 850MB TEMPERATURES BELOW 0C MONDAY  
NIGHT. IN FACT, THROUGH TUESDAY, 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE  
BETWEEN -1C TO -3C. DAYTIME HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE  
IT ANY WARMER THAN THE LOW 50S. PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER ACROSS  
NORTHEAST SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN READINGS NOT  
MAKING IT OUT OF THE UPPER 40S. ALL THE WHILE, A TIGHT PRESSURE  
GRADIENT IS MAINTAINED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY LEADING TO GUSTY  
NORTHWEST WINDS. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE REALIZED ACROSS MOST OF THE  
EASTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NBM PROBABILITIES OF SEEING WIND  
GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 MPH RANGE BETWEEN 60-90 PERCENT FROM THE LEOLA  
HILLS DOWN INTO THE JAMES VALLEY AND EAST INTO WEST CENTRAL MN ON  
TUESDAY. WOULD ANTICIPATE GUSTS DURING THE DAY IN THESE AREAS WILL  
AT LEAST FALL INTO THE 30-40 MPH RANGE. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW  
MOVES EAST OUT OF NORTHERN MN INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES, SOME  
LIGHT WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST SD AND  
WEST CENTRAL MN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  
 
RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT IS THEN PROGGED TO TAKE HOLD AS MID-  
WEEK APPROACHES. THIS WILL HELP CURTAIL WINDS BY THE END OF THE DAY  
ON TUESDAY AND SET THE STAGE FOR A CHILLY OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES,  
LIGHT WINDS AND A DRY AIR MASS WILL BE THE PERFECT SET UP FOR GOOD  
RADIATIONAL COOLING TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES  
OF THE AUTUMN SEASON WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH WIDESPREAD UPPER 20S  
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY. NBM PROBABILITIES  
FOR LOW TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN 25 DEGREES RANGE FROM 30-50 PERCENT  
ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY AND PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL SD. WITH HIGH  
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY, PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS  
EXPECTED BUT TEMPERATURE READINGS WILL STILL REMAIN COOL BUT FAIRLY  
CLOSE TO SEASONAL WITH READINGS IN THE 50S. ONCE THAT HIGH SHIFTS  
FAR ENOUGH EAST BY THURSDAY AND BEYOND, WE'LL START TO TURN THE  
CORNER ON THIS COOL TREND AS WE PICK UP A SOUTHERLY WIND. THIS TREND  
SHOULD THEN HOLD THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD THROUGH THE END OF THE  
WEEK. TEMPERATURE READINGS WILL GRADUALLY WARM WITH 850MB READINGS  
BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BETWEEN +3C AND +9C. THIS SHOULD HELP TO  
BOOST DAYTIME READINGS BACK INTO THE 60S LATE IN THIS PERIOD. AFTER  
TUESDAY, THERE LOOKS TO BE VERY LITTLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIP AS  
RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT STEER ANY DISTURBANCES AWAY FROM OUR  
AREA.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025  
 
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG  
 
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS  
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) IS POSSIBLE  
AT KPIR/KATY TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.  
 
 
   
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
SD...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
UPDATE...VIPOND  
SHORT TERM...SD  
LONG TERM...VIPOND  
AVIATION...VIPOND  
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