991
FXUS63 KABR 191745 AAC
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1245 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WINDS AND ELEVATED FIRE DANGER RETURN MONDAY. PROBABILITY OF
WIND GUSTS 45 MPH OR GREATER IS 60-80 PERCENT ACROSS CENTRAL
SD.
- WIDESPREAD MID/UPPER 20S TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BRING THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES THUS FAR THIS SEASON.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1025 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
FORECAST THROUGH 00Z TODAY IS ON TRACK AND LITTLE TO NO CHANGES
NEEDED. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY AND SWITCH WINDS TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON ITS BACK SIDE
BY THIS EVENING. SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S. FOCUS LATER TODAY WILL SHIFT TO POTENTIAL WIND
HEADLINES FOR MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE PAC NW COAST WILL CAUSE A
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DRAW WARMER AIR INTO THE CWA WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE MID 50S, TO THE MID 60S. THESE READINGS ARE ONE TO FIVE
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BY 0Z MONDAY, THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, WITH A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WEST OF THE DAKOTAS. THE SURFACE LOW
SHOULD APPROACH THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA. DECENT PRESSURE
FALLS MAY CAUSE GUSTY WINDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREA OF THE
SISSETON HILLS. AS THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES NORTHEAST OF THE CWA ON
MONDAY, INCREASING PRESSURE RISES, ALONG WITH FAVORABLE MIXING WINDS
SHOULD PRODUCE WINDS GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.
THE NBM SHOWS A 40 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 45
MPH WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. LATER FORECAST SHIFTS MAY NEED
TO CONSIDER A WIND ADVISORY FOR MONDAY. THE PROBABLY OF SEEING
GUSTS OF 60 MPH WITH LOW, OR UNDER 15 PERCENT.
WHILE THE NBM SUGGESTS MOST OF THE PCPN OCCURRING IN NORTH DAKOTA
WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM, THERE ARE SOME "DRY" PERIODS WHERE PCPN MAY
OCCUR. SOME CAMS SUGGEST LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS EASTERN SD AND WESTERN MN MONDAY MORNING, BETWEEN 12-16Z.
OTHER CAMS, PLUS THE NAM, SUPPORT SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE NBM
LEFT THIS TIME PERIOD DRY, HAVE ADDED A 20 POP TO MATCH NEIGHBORING
CWAS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
A COLDER AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA BEHIND A
DEPARTING SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A CAA PATTERN WILL DRIVE 850MB TEMPERATURES BELOW 0C MONDAY
NIGHT. IN FACT, THROUGH TUESDAY, 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
BETWEEN -1C TO -3C. DAYTIME HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE
IT ANY WARMER THAN THE LOW 50S. PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER ACROSS
NORTHEAST SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN READINGS NOT
MAKING IT OUT OF THE UPPER 40S. ALL THE WHILE, A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS MAINTAINED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY LEADING TO GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE REALIZED ACROSS MOST OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NBM PROBABILITIES OF SEEING WIND
GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 MPH RANGE BETWEEN 60-90 PERCENT FROM THE LEOLA
HILLS DOWN INTO THE JAMES VALLEY AND EAST INTO WEST CENTRAL MN ON
TUESDAY. WOULD ANTICIPATE GUSTS DURING THE DAY IN THESE AREAS WILL
AT LEAST FALL INTO THE 30-40 MPH RANGE. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
MOVES EAST OUT OF NORTHERN MN INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES, SOME
LIGHT WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST SD AND
WEST CENTRAL MN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT IS THEN PROGGED TO TAKE HOLD AS MID-
WEEK APPROACHES. THIS WILL HELP CURTAIL WINDS BY THE END OF THE DAY
ON TUESDAY AND SET THE STAGE FOR A CHILLY OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES,
LIGHT WINDS AND A DRY AIR MASS WILL BE THE PERFECT SET UP FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
OF THE AUTUMN SEASON WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH WIDESPREAD UPPER 20S
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY. NBM PROBABILITIES
FOR LOW TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN 25 DEGREES RANGE FROM 30-50 PERCENT
ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY AND PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL SD. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY, PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED BUT TEMPERATURE READINGS WILL STILL REMAIN COOL BUT FAIRLY
CLOSE TO SEASONAL WITH READINGS IN THE 50S. ONCE THAT HIGH SHIFTS
FAR ENOUGH EAST BY THURSDAY AND BEYOND, WE'LL START TO TURN THE
CORNER ON THIS COOL TREND AS WE PICK UP A SOUTHERLY WIND. THIS TREND
SHOULD THEN HOLD THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURE READINGS WILL GRADUALLY WARM WITH 850MB READINGS
BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BETWEEN +3C AND +9C. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
BOOST DAYTIME READINGS BACK INTO THE 60S LATE IN THIS PERIOD. AFTER
TUESDAY, THERE LOOKS TO BE VERY LITTLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIP AS
RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT STEER ANY DISTURBANCES AWAY FROM OUR
AREA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF -SHRA ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SD (KMBG)
OVERNIGHT, TEMPORARILY DROPPING VSBY TO MVFR. OTHERWISE, LOW-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR WILL BE A CONCERN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION AND
HAVE INSERTED MENTION OF THIS WHERE/WHEN APPROPRIATE. GUSTY
NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS FROM 30-35KTS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING
OVER CENTRAL SD.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...VIPOND
AVIATION...TMT
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