769
FXUS63 KABR 192033
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
333 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WINDS AND INCREASED FIRE DANGER FOR MONDAY. GUSTS
RANGING FROM 45 TO PERHAPS 60 MPH, MAINLY WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER. HEADLINES IN EFFECT FOR WIND IMPACTS ON MONDAY.
- MUCH OF THE REGION FORECAST TO DROP TO 32 DEGREES OR BELOW
TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH MID/UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
MAIN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE THE STRONG WINDS AND
HIGH/VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER EXPECTED ON MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE STILL
LOOKS TO MOVE EAST ACROSS SD OVERNIGHT AND INTO MINNESOTA BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WESTERN/CENTRAL SD SEE THE
STRONGEST WINDS ON MONDAY, MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER. BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER WINDS, 90TH PERCENTILE NBM WINDS,
AND RAW MODEL GUIDANCE OUTPUT CONTINUE TO SHOW ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
SHOULD BE MET FAIRLY EASILY WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. WHAT GETS A BIT
MORE QUESTIONABLE IS IF WARNING LEVEL WINDS (58+MPH GUSTS) CAN BE
REACHED OVER THE WESTERN CWA. SIGNALS ARE A BIT MIXED IN THAT
REGARD, SO WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH OVER THE FAR
WESTERN CWA. EAST OF THERE, A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED. KEPT IT
WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER FOR NOW AS CURRENT GUIDANCE LOOKS MARGINAL
IN THAT AREA. BUT, OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS
AND SEE IF IT NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED EAST ANY FURTHER.
PRECIPITATION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A BIG FACTOR AS THIS WHOLE
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS LOOK TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL SD LATE TONIGHT, WITH MOST OF THE CWA STAYING DRY. WILL BE
WATCHING FOR WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS AS WELL MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT, BUT OVERALL THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LESS THAN
0.25IN.
TUESDAY STILL APPEARS WINDY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION, ALTHOUGH WIND
SPEEDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT HEADLINES AT
THIS TIME. WILL THEN BE WATCHING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. MUCH OF THE CWA
WILL DROP TO FREEZING OR BELOW, WITH UPPER 20S FORECAST IN THE JAMES
VALLEY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. NBM PROBABILITY OF LOW TEMPS AT 25
DEGREES OR LOWER WEDNESDAY MORNING IS AROUND 40-50% IN THE JAMES
VALLEY, SO OPTED TO DROP ABERDEEN'S LOW JUST A COUPLE DEGREES AND
HAVE US CLOSER TO AROUND 26 DEGREES.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY LOOKS MOSTLY
DRY WITH LIMITED IMPACTS. IF ANYTHING, NBM IS SHOWING WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 30 MPH FROM THE SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND, SO MAY HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON FIRE DANGER BY THEN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF -SHRA ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SD (KMBG)
OVERNIGHT, TEMPORARILY DROPPING VSBY TO MVFR. OTHERWISE, LOW-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR WILL BE A CONCERN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION AND
HAVE INSERTED MENTION OF THIS WHERE/WHEN APPROPRIATE. GUSTY
NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS FROM 30-35KTS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING
OVER CENTRAL SD.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
SDZ003-015-033-045.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM CDT MONDAY FOR SDZ004-005-009-
010-016-017-034>037-048-051.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...TMT
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