981
FXUS63 KABR 200110 AAB
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
810 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WINDS AND INCREASED FIRE DANGER FOR MONDAY. GUSTS
RANGING FROM 45 TO PERHAPS 60 MPH, MAINLY WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER. HEADLINES IN EFFECT FOR WIND IMPACTS ON MONDAY.
- MUCH OF THE REGION FORECAST TO DROP TO 32 DEGREES OR BELOW
TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH MID/UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 810 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
THE ONGOING FORECAST REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED. THERE WAS A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE POPS, WIND, AND WIND GUSTS. NONE OF THE
ADJUSTMENTS WILL LEAD TO CHANGES IN THE WIND HEADLINES, SO THEY WILL
BE KEPT THE SAME. UPDATES ARE OUT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
MAIN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE THE STRONG WINDS AND
HIGH/VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER EXPECTED ON MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE STILL
LOOKS TO MOVE EAST ACROSS SD OVERNIGHT AND INTO MINNESOTA BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WESTERN/CENTRAL SD SEE THE
STRONGEST WINDS ON MONDAY, MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER. BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER WINDS, 90TH PERCENTILE NBM WINDS,
AND RAW MODEL GUIDANCE OUTPUT CONTINUE TO SHOW ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
SHOULD BE MET FAIRLY EASILY WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. WHAT GETS A BIT
MORE QUESTIONABLE IS IF WARNING LEVEL WINDS (58+MPH GUSTS) CAN BE
REACHED OVER THE WESTERN CWA. SIGNALS ARE A BIT MIXED IN THAT
REGARD, SO WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH OVER THE FAR
WESTERN CWA. EAST OF THERE, A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED. KEPT IT
WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER FOR NOW AS CURRENT GUIDANCE LOOKS MARGINAL
IN THAT AREA. BUT, OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS
AND SEE IF IT NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED EAST ANY FURTHER.
PRECIPITATION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A BIG FACTOR AS THIS WHOLE
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS LOOK TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL SD LATE TONIGHT, WITH MOST OF THE CWA STAYING DRY. WILL BE
WATCHING FOR WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS AS WELL MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT, BUT OVERALL THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LESS THAN
0.25IN.
TUESDAY STILL APPEARS WINDY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION, ALTHOUGH WIND
SPEEDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT HEADLINES AT
THIS TIME. WILL THEN BE WATCHING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. MUCH OF THE CWA
WILL DROP TO FREEZING OR BELOW, WITH UPPER 20S FORECAST IN THE JAMES
VALLEY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. NBM PROBABILITY OF LOW TEMPS AT 25
DEGREES OR LOWER WEDNESDAY MORNING IS AROUND 40-50% IN THE JAMES
VALLEY, SO OPTED TO DROP ABERDEEN'S LOW JUST A COUPLE DEGREES AND
HAVE US CLOSER TO AROUND 26 DEGREES.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY LOOKS MOSTLY
DRY WITH LIMITED IMPACTS. IF ANYTHING, NBM IS SHOWING WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 30 MPH FROM THE SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND, SO MAY HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON FIRE DANGER BY THEN.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
THERE WILL BE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT, THOUGH THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AT KMBG OVERNIGHT THAT COULD REDUCE
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO MVFR FOR A BIT. WIND SPEEDS ALOFT
WILL START TO SPEED UP AND TURN TONIGHT, WITH THESE STRONGER WINDS
AND GUSTS GETTING TO THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY
MORNING. THE WIND SHIFT AND SPEED CHANGE WILL CAUSE SOME LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT AT KPIR, KABR, AND KATY. WINDS AT KPIR AND
KMBG WILL START TO SHIFT TO BE FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT
GUSTING UP TO 30 TO 35KTS OVERNIGHT AND ABOVE 40KTS DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. WINDS AT KABR AND KATY WILL START TO SHIFT TO BE FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE EARLY MORNING WITH GUSTS GETTING ABOVE 35KTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
SDZ003-015-033-045.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM CDT MONDAY FOR SDZ004-005-009-
010-016-017-034>037-048-051.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...12
DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...12
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page